2650 W Union Hills Dr #15 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$89,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Manufactured · 127 Days on market

Built 1995 Good condition $60/sqft · 38% above area Est $65k · 38% over ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seize the chance to own this charming 3-bedroom mobile home in the 55+ adult Community of the Friendly Village of Orangewood! You're welcomed by a convenient carport, a lovely walkway, and a front porch that sets an inviting tone. Inside, you'll find a serene living room with vaulted ceilings, blinds, and soft carpeting for added comfort. The well-appointed kitchen comes with crisp white cabinetry with crown moulding, contemporary track lighting, stainless steel appliances, and a peninsula with a breakfast bar. The cozy main bedroom includes a private bathroom with dual sinks and a practical walk-in closet. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $848 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.60%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,000
• List price: $89,500
• Delta: 37.69%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #8	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+4%)	2mo	$65,000	$42	87
2650 W Union Hills Dr #258	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+0%)	12mo	$80,000	$54	86
2650 W Union Hills Dr #131	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+0%)	8mo	$60,500	$41	84
2650 W Union Hills Dr #100	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	9mo	$99,000	$69	84
2650 W Union Hills Dr #138	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+4%)	5mo	$74,000	$48	81
2650 W Union Hills Dr #33	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	13mo	$55,000	$38	80
2650 W Union Hills Dr #43	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-9%)	4mo	$50,000	$37	77
2650 W Union Hills Dr #38	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-4%)	15mo	$97,500	$69	77
2650 W Union Hills Dr #367	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+4%)	17mo	$112,000	$73	76
2650 W Union Hills Dr #114	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-3%)	13mo	$29,000	$20	76
2650 W Union Hills Dr #215	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-9%)	10mo	$37,500	$28	67
2650 W Union Hills Dr #185	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-6%)	18mo	$20,000	$14	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $34,084
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $78,303
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $848

Break-even live

Break-even rent $783

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,895	$2.07	18d	2	0.43mi
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,015	$2.03	2d	17	0.46mi
2931 W Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,395	$1.29	43d	1	0.46mi
18422 N 30th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,275	$1.42	24d	1	0.48mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,844	$1.89	1d	80	0.56mi
18001 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	43d	1	0.56mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	2d	19	0.58mi
2953 W Libby St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,095	$1.28	43d	1	0.71mi
17832 N 31st Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1160	$1,959	$1.69	20d	1	0.75mi
17832 N 31st Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1160	$1,959	$1.69	23d	1	0.75mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	7d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	7d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	14d	1	0.78mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	14d	1	0.78mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	16d	1	0.79mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	43d	1	0.82mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,636	$2.01	1d	69	0.85mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	43d	1	0.85mi
2431 W Shady Glen Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,155	$1.36	7d	1	0.92mi
3338 W Tonto Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1206	$1,375	$1.14	7d	1	1.01mi
3250 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,450	$1.32	24d	1	1.05mi
18435 N 36th Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,400	$1.73	43d	1	1.09mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,525	$1.72	1d	2	1.12mi
20245 N 32nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,530	$1.83	3d	14	1.13mi
2018 W Meadow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,005	$1.21	7d	1	1.16mi
2902 W Irma Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,295	$1.48	43d	1	1.17mi
20227 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,500	$1.17	43d	1	1.18mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,820	$1.89	2d	14	1.19mi
1750 W Union Hills Dr #91 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1680	$1,900	$1.13	5d	1	1.20mi
3202 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$1,299	$1.81	1d	34	1.21mi
20622 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1320	$2,600	$1.97	24d	1	1.22mi
17216 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,525	$2.06	2d	20	1.25mi
2109 W Danbury Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1175	$1,695	$1.44	43d	1	1.29mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	43d	1	1.32mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	12d	2	1.32mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	24d	2	1.32mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	2d	1	1.33mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	24d	1	1.33mi
1636 W Taro Ln Unit Labs Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,550	$1.53	43d	1	1.33mi
3434 W Danbury Dr Unit A114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	24d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,500 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-05-11
   price $89,500 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   Seize the chance to own this charming 3-bedroom mobile home in the 55+ adult Community of the Friendly Village of Orangewood! You're welcomed by a convenient carport, a lovely walkway, and a front porch that sets an inviting tone. Inside, you'll find a serene living room with vaulted ceilings, blinds, and soft carpeting for added comfort. The well-appointed kitchen comes with crisp white cabinetry with crown moulding, contemporary track lighting, stainless steel appliances, and a peninsula with a breakfast bar. The cozy main bedroom includes a private bathroom with dual sinks and a practical walk-in closet. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

3. 2026-04-29
   status Active 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   Seize the chance to own this charming 3-bedroom mobile home in the 55+ adult Community of the Friendly Village of Orangewood! You're welcomed by a convenient carport, a lovely walkway, and a front porch that sets an inviting tone. Inside, you'll find a serene living room with vaulted ceilings, blinds, and soft carpeting for added comfort. The well-appointed kitchen comes with crisp white cabinetry with crown moulding, contemporary track lighting, stainless steel appliances, and a peninsula with a breakfast bar. The cozy main bedroom includes a private bathroom with dual sinks and a practical walk-in closet. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

4. 2026-04-27
   status Pending 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   Seize the chance to own this charming 3-bedroom mobile home in the 55+ adult Community of the Friendly Village of Orangewood! You're welcomed by a convenient carport, a lovely walkway, and a front porch that sets an inviting tone. Inside, you'll find a serene living room with vaulted ceilings, blinds, and soft carpeting for added comfort. The well-appointed kitchen comes with crisp white cabinetry with crown moulding, contemporary track lighting, stainless steel appliances, and a peninsula with a breakfast bar. The cozy main bedroom includes a private bathroom with dual sinks and a practical walk-in closet. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

5. 2026-04-27
   status Active 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   Seize the chance to own this charming 3-bedroom mobile home in the 55+ adult Community of the Friendly Village of Orangewood! You're welcomed by a convenient carport, a lovely walkway, and a front porch that sets an inviting tone. Inside, you'll find a serene living room with vaulted ceilings, blinds, and soft carpeting for added comfort. The well-appointed kitchen comes with crisp white cabinetry with crown moulding, contemporary track lighting, stainless steel appliances, and a peninsula with a breakfast bar. The cozy main bedroom includes a private bathroom with dual sinks and a practical walk-in closet. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

6. 2026-03-07
   status Pending 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   Seize the chance to own this charming 3-bedroom mobile home in the 55+ adult Community of the Friendly Village of Orangewood! You're welcomed by a convenient carport, a lovely walkway, and a front porch that sets an inviting tone. Inside, you'll find a serene living room with vaulted ceilings, blinds, and soft carpeting for added comfort. The well-appointed kitchen comes with crisp white cabinetry with crown moulding, contemporary track lighting, stainless steel appliances, and a peninsula with a breakfast bar. The cozy main bedroom includes a private bathroom with dual sinks and a practical walk-in closet. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

7. 2026-02-12
   price $99,000 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   Seize the chance to own this charming 3-bedroom mobile home in the 55+ adult Community of the Friendly Village of Orangewood! You're welcomed by a convenient carport, a lovely walkway, and a front porch that sets an inviting tone. Inside, you'll find a serene living room with vaulted ceilings, blinds, and soft carpeting for added comfort. The well-appointed kitchen comes with crisp white cabinetry with crown moulding, contemporary track lighting, stainless steel appliances, and a peninsula with a breakfast bar. The cozy main bedroom includes a private bathroom with dual sinks and a practical walk-in closet. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

8. 2025-12-03
   listed $109,000 Active 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   Seize the chance to own this charming 3-bedroom mobile home in the 55+ adult Community of the Friendly Village of Orangewood! You're welcomed by a convenient carport, a lovely walkway, and a front porch that sets an inviting tone. Inside, you'll find a serene living room with vaulted ceilings, blinds, and soft carpeting for added comfort. The well-appointed kitchen comes with crisp white cabinetry with crown moulding, contemporary track lighting, stainless steel appliances, and a peninsula with a breakfast bar. The cozy main bedroom includes a private bathroom with dual sinks and a practical walk-in closet. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $9,303
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,233
• After-tax cash flow: $7,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 3-bedroom mobile home in the 55+ adult community is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Replace the carpet in the living room — New carpet can improve comfort and aesthetics.
• Rental Clean the kitchen countertops — A clean kitchen is essential for attracting tenants and maintaining a good rental record.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace the carpet in the living room — New carpet can improve comfort and aesthetics. ↑
• Rental Clean the kitchen countertops — A clean kitchen is essential for attracting tenants and maintaining a good rental record. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $89,500 ARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $99,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $109,000 ARMLS