2917 Cyprian Rd · Waco, TX 76655

$294,295

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,501 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition Est $287k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the Camden floorplan at Park Meadows, this beautiful single story 2-car garage home in Lorena, Texas is just what you have been looking for. Inside this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom floorplan, you'll find approximately 1,501 square foot home that makes the most of its space. The living area Is an open concept, where your kitchen, living, and dining areas blend seamlessly into a space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features flat panel birch cabinets and granite countertops. It also includes a breakfast bar and separate pantry for extra storage space. The standard covered patio is located off the family room for you to enjoy the views of nature from the backyard.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $294,295

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Spec new-construction home, Plan Name: Camden
• Exterior features: Address: 2917 Cyprian Rd, Lorena, TX 76655

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,501

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,973 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,691
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2404 Cambridge	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,469 (-2%)	10mo	$280,000	$191	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-55,939
• Equity at exit: $43,880

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-59,234
• Equity at exit: $25,445

Cash invested: $82,403 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,543
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,414/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,574

Max offer price $275,468

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,574
• Closing costs: $8,829
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2813 Gilchrist Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,200	$1.44	44d	1	0.10mi
2701 Skinner Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	44d	1	0.14mi
2809 Keathley Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	44d	1	0.21mi
3217 Jackal Dr Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	21d	1	0.37mi
10312 Sierra West Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	21d	1	0.48mi
3128 Brosnan Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	44d	1	0.54mi
3225 Marston Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	44d	1	0.57mi
3117 Sherco Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	44d	1	0.57mi
9720 Chapel Rd Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,300	$2.17	13d	93	1.24mi
1800 Woodgate Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,300	$2.17	13d	132	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,295 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,295 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,295 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,295 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $294,295 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,295 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,295 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,295 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,295 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,295 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,295 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,295 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $294,295 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,414
• − Insurance: −$1,471
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − Depreciation: −$8,561
• Taxable loss: −$6,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,594
• After-tax cash flow: $33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-story home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to bring it up to a good condition. Upgrades to the interior and exterior can significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear on cabinet doors.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures with no visible damage.
• Minor Paint touch-ups — Slight discoloration on interior walls.
• Minor Window caulking — Slight discoloration around window frames.
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown grass and weeds around the property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Window caulking — Fresh caulking improves energy efficiency and appearance.
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both Kitchen cabinet hardware — New hardware can refresh the kitchen and add value.
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can add value and improve functionality.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Slight wear on cabinet doors.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Standard fixtures with no visible damage.	Minor	$500–3,000
Paint touch-ups · Slight discoloration on interior walls.	Minor	$500–3,000
Window caulking · Slight discoloration around window frames.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown grass and weeds around the property.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$2,500–15,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Window caulking — Fresh caulking improves energy efficiency and appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Kitchen cabinet hardware — New hardware can refresh the kitchen and add value. ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can add value and improve functionality. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B