5717 Mangas Cir · Geronimo, TX 78155

$210,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · Land · 6 Days on market

Built 2024 4,312 sqft lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Water park
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Playgrounds

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• BACKS TO GREENBELT
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• SPLASH PAD
• WATER PARK
• PLAYGROUNDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee); Community amenities include barbecue area, clubhouse, fitness center, playground, and community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Property pre-wired for security
• Utilities: Cable available; Natural gas available; Trash collection (private); Public sewer (not connected at lot); Public/community water (not connected at lot)
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Lap siding; Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per assessor)
• Exterior features: Back yard with privacy fencing; Backs to greenbelt/park; Outside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Tankless water heater; Some gas appliances
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (dimensions not provided); Bedroom 2 — 9 x 14; Bedroom 3 — 13 x 12
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air (one unit)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Pull-down attic stairs; Tub with shower; Walk-in closet(s); Kitchen and family room combined; Kitchen and dining area combined
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1377 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,611 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-44,159
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-55,991
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1377
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,645/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,995

Max offer price $186,460

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-14	-5% $-74	+0% $-133	+5% $-193	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-205	+0% $-133	+5% $-61	+10% $11
Rate	-1.0pp $-28	-0.5pp $-80	base $-133	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	0d	1	0.22mi
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	4d	1	0.23mi
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	45d	1	0.24mi
964 Pastar Crk Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	0d	1	0.26mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	0d	1	0.34mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	45d	1	0.34mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	0d	1	0.37mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	0d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 693-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $210,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,645 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,645 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,645
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$5,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $-361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $210,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-11-14 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2025-11-02 Pending — LERA
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $189,999 LERA
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $201,999 LERA
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $245,999 LERA
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $265,999 LERA
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $235,999 LERA
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $217,999 LERA
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $214,249 LERA
• 2025-06-27 Listed $242,999 LERA

Property tax history

+242.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,645 · +1012.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.