24 Schooner Ln · Modesto, CA 95356

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1981 Average condition $59/sqft · 31% below area Est $115k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.3

Listing remarks

Welcome to this clean and inviting home in a quiet senior community! Featuring an open-concept layout, a nice size yard perfect for relaxing or gardening. Newer roof and HVAC system already in place. The home may need some cosmetic updates, but it has been lovingly maintained and is full of opportunity and charm.

Key facts

• Nice size yard
• Newer roof
• Hvac system

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NICE SIZE YARD
• NEWER ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 3.3% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.33%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,000
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -30.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 Dory Ln	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$139,000	$103	97
19 Schooner Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	5mo	$114,500	$85	95
195 Schooner Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,322 (-2%)	8mo	$132,000	$100	88
132 Sloop	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	13mo	$138,000	$103	84
3 Schooner Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	10mo	$118,840	$83	76
93 Schooner Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-4%)	6mo	$150,000	$116	74
43 Clipper Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$25,000	$17	74
48 Clipper Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,160 (-14%)	5mo	$129,000	$111	69
4125 Mchenry Ave #3	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	1mo	$85,000	$65	68
3955 Coffee #53	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$81,900	$57	62
3955 Coffee Rd #92	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	3mo	$105,000	$69	55
4125 Mchenry Ave #71	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	12mo	$84,000	$70	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $27,891
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $64,830
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $129,800 ($105/sqft)
• Median days on market: 57 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -18.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95356

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $770	-5% $742	+0% $715	+5% $687	+10% $659
Rent	-10% $588	-5% $651	+0% $715	+5% $778	+10% $841
Rate	-1.0pp $755	-0.5pp $735	base $715	+0.5pp $694	+1.0pp $673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3509 Dragoo Park Dr Unit 3511 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,899	$1.42	119d	1	0.46mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	109d	1	0.55mi
941 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1004	$1,799	$1.79	3d	1	0.55mi
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	116d	1	0.70mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	109d	1	0.76mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	829	$1,845	$2.23	0d	10	0.93mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	116d	1	0.93mi
825 Muscat Way Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,395	$1.98	6d	1	0.98mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,071	$2.53	0d	10	1.05mi
204 Emerson Ave Unit A Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1252	$2,150	$1.72	119d	1	1.08mi
912 Pennington Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,300	$1.55	0d	1	1.12mi
1700 Briarwood Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,800	$1.71	0d	1	1.20mi
3701 Colonial Dr #154 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	978	$1,950	$1.99	109d	1	1.22mi
1339 E Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	109d	1	1.26mi
200 Sheila Ct Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,725	$2.05	0d	1	1.34mi
2912 Niabell Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	109d	1	1.35mi
3000 Jade Way Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	3d	1	1.36mi
1313 Floyd Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,725	$2.16	109d	2	1.44mi
3401 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1232	$2,050	$1.66	0d	5	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present in source but excluded per instructions)
• HOA & community: No homeowners associationSenior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parkingOff-street parkingGuest parking available
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (double wide)Original conditionBuilt in 1981
• Construction: Composition roofSkirting: aluminum, vinyl, and woodManufacturer: Redman Home IncModel/Make: Kirkwood
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardBackyardPorch

Interior

• Kitchen: Island with breakfast areaLaminate countertopsFree standing electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: CarpetLinoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsTub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: Porch with steps and awningDual-pane full windowsCathedral/vaulted living roomDining and living room combined
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room (220V in laundry)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-03
   days on market $79,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-07-31
   days on market $79,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-07-29
   days on market $79,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-07-27
   days on market $79,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-07-25
   days on market $79,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-07-23
   days on market $79,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-07-22
   days on market $79,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-07-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-07-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-07-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-07-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-07-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-07-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-07-12
    days on market $79,900 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-07-11
    days on market $79,900 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-07-10
    days on market $79,900 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-07-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-07-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-07-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 46 DOM
20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $79,900 Active 45 DOM
21. 2026-07-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 44 DOM
22. 2026-07-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 43 DOM
23. 2026-07-03
    price $79,900 Active 42 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $96,000 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    days on market $96,000 Active 41 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $96,000 Active 40 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $96,000 Active 39 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $96,000 Active 38 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $96,000 Active 37 DOM
30. 2026-06-28
    days on market $96,000 Active 36 DOM
31. 2026-06-27
    days on market $96,000 Active 35 DOM
32. 2026-06-25
    days on market $96,000 Active 33 DOM
33. 2026-06-23
    days on market $96,000 Active 31 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $96,000 Active 30 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $96,000 Active 27 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $96,000 Active 26 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $96,000 Active 25 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $96,000 Active 24 DOM
39. 2026-06-14
    days on market $96,000 Active 22 DOM
40. 2026-06-13
    days on market $96,000 Active 21 DOM
41. 2026-06-10
    days on market $96,000 Active 19 DOM
42. 2026-06-09
    days on market $96,000 Active 18 DOM
43. 2026-06-08
    days on market $96,000 Active 17 DOM
44. 2026-06-07
    days on market $96,000 Active 16 DOM
45. 2026-06-05
    days on market $96,000 Active 13 DOM
46. 2026-06-03
    days on market $96,000 Active 12 DOM
47. 2026-06-02
    days on market $96,000 Active 11 DOM
48. 2026-06-01
    days on market $96,000 Active 10 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $96,000 Active 9 DOM
50. 2026-05-30
    days on market $96,000 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $7,765
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,864
• After-tax cash flow: $6,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,720–$20,160 screening

This home is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed. It has a good roof and HVAC system, but the kitchen and bathroom need significant updates. The home has a nice size yard and is in a quiet senior community.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of updating
• Minor exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance ↑
• Both replace carpeted floors — new flooring can greatly improve the home's appeal ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — new cabinets and countertops can significantly enhance the home's value ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — new appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — new fixtures can make the bathroom more functional and appealing ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stockard Coffee Elementary Middle Elizabeth Ustach Middle F CA #277/498 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Fred C. Beyer High F CA #669/1,170 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 579,493 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,233
• Household income: $96,886
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Pacific Islander 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.73%
• Current HPI: 270.6957
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present in source but excluded per instructions)
• HOA & community: No homeowners associationSenior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parkingOff-street parkingGuest parking available
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (double wide)Original conditionBuilt in 1981
• Construction: Composition roofSkirting: aluminum, vinyl, and woodManufacturer: Redman Home IncModel/Make: Kirkwood
• Exterior features: Fenced backyardBackyardPorch

Interior

• Kitchen: Island with breakfast areaLaminate countertopsFree standing electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: CarpetLinoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsTub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: Porch with steps and awningDual-pane full windowsCathedral/vaulted living roomDining and living room combined
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room (220V in laundry)