2924 Dune Rd · Lake Lafayette, MO 64076

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1996 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take a look at this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the Odessa R-VII School District, featuring new flooring, new carpet, an updated kitchen with a new sink, and a new washer & dryer included. This move-in-ready home sits just 5 minutes from the 90-acre Odessa City Lake, offering fishing, trails, and peaceful views. Easy access to I-70 and Hwy 50 provides a convenient commute while still enjoying affordable country living. Affidavit of affixation on file! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• New carpet
• New flooring
• New sink

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• NEW SINK
• NEW WASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is level and wooded; Lot on gravel road; Lot size about 0.29 acres; Not in flood plain; Directions: From Hwy 131 north, right on Newton Rd, ~2 miles, left on Dune Dr (no road sign). If you pass Kite Rd you went too far.
• HOA & community: No association fees; No maintenance provided

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence; Living area approximately 1,140; 21–30 years old
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Shed(s); Fenced (other)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Electric cooling (has cooling)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Kit/Dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#907 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Odessa R-VII (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #123 of 324 in MO (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.49%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,916
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $22,986
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64076

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 506-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $155,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,552
• − Management: −$1,552
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$381
• After-tax cash flow: $3,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Odessa R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2923100
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,736
• Composite: 35.44/100
• National rank: #4932
• State rank: #123 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lake Lafayette

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #25659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,236

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Danish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.23%
• Current HPI: 255.8581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $155,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $243 · -9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.