2612 Madison St · Gary, IN 46407

$15,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1920 3,006 sqft lot $13/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special - Massive Potential & Solid Bones This home is the ultimate blank canvas for your next project. If you are looking for a property with "good bones" that can be reimagined into a much larger residence, this is it. Key Features: Full Basement: providing massive potential to double your usable square footage or add extra bedrooms. Flexible Layout: The interior is ready to be reconfigured. With 1,120 sq. ft. to work with, you can easily open up the floor plan to create a more spacious, modern living area. This house needs a total renovation.

Key facts

• Flexible layout
• Full basement
• 3,006 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $801 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 70.4% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,142/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 392% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $251 of equity ($104 loan paydown + $147 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $13,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 70.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 228.96%
• DSCR: 11.19
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,576
• List price: $15,000
• Delta: -63.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2679 Van Buren St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-2%)	9mo	$28,000	$25	75
2545 Van Buren St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,117 (-0%)	16mo	$90,000	$81	71
2579 Madison St	0.05mi	2/1.0	1,225 (+9%)	13mo	$45,000	$37	69
2549 Pierce St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,071 (-4%)	1mo	$144,900	$135	60
2713 Jefferson St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,273 (+14%)	4mo	$175,000	$137	59
2301 Delaware St	0.63mi	2/1.5	1,064 (-5%)	8mo	$29,400	$28	56
2425 Prospect St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-6%)	2mo	$44,550	$42	48
2349 Virginia St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,238 (+10%)	2mo	$140,000	$113	42
2458 Virginia St	0.62mi	2/1.0	996 (-11%)	12mo	$30,000	$30	41
2428 Delaware St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,280 (+14%)	15mo	$20,000	$16	37
2280 Connecticut St	0.54mi	2/1.5	952 (-15%)	20mo	$14,450	$15	33
2252 Maryland St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,266 (+13%)	8mo	$165,000	$130	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.22×
• Total profit: $51,320
• Equity at exit: $5,105

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.97×
• Total profit: $113,272
• Equity at exit: $6,772

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46407

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $191/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $801

Break-even live

Break-even rent $128

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2572-76 Van Buren Pl Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	1d	1	0.21mi
837 W 27th Ave Unit A Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	1d	1	0.35mi
837 W 27th Ave Unit B Gary, IN	1.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	1d	1	0.35mi
2336 Delaware St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	1d	1	0.57mi
2361 Pierce St Unit 2 Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	860	$900	$1.05	1d	1	0.62mi
2300 Maryland St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	19d	1	0.64mi
2425 Prospect St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1051	$1,400	$1.33	1d	1	0.70mi
2453 Prospect St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	704	$1,095	$1.56	1d	1	0.71mi
2315 Industrial Blvd Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	989	$950	$0.96	3d	1	0.72mi
2315 Industrial Blvd Unit B Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	989	$1,150	$1.16	1d	1	0.72mi
2315 Industrial Blvd Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	989	$950	$0.96	1d	1	0.72mi
2022 Massachusetts St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	965	$1,000	$1.04	1d	1	0.79mi
2355 Rhode Island St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	701	$1,095	$1.56	43d	1	0.85mi
2061 Maryland St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	975	$950	$0.97	43d	1	0.87mi
2306 Vermont St Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,300	$1.08	1d	1	0.91mi
840 W 19th Ave Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1035	$1,150	$1.11	19d	1	0.98mi
3395 Pennsylvania St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	1d	1	1.07mi
801 E 32nd Ave Unit 2 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	1d	1	1.10mi
1572 Polk St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	1d	1	1.15mi
3449 Buchanan St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1301	$1,395	$1.07	43d	1	1.18mi
1521 Pierce St Unit 1 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	800	$850	$1.06	1d	1	1.25mi
2280 Roosevelt Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	1d	1	1.31mi
1329 Delaware St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.35mi
1316 Delaware St Unit 2 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	20d	1	1.35mi
816 E 35th Ct Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	810	$1,075	$1.33	1d	1	1.36mi
2264 Taft St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,275	$1.59	1d	1	1.38mi
3708 Harrison St Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	904	$1,400	$1.55	2d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $15,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $15,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $15,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $15,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $15,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    price $15,000 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Investor Special - Massive Potential & Solid Bones This home is the ultimate blank canvas for your next project. If you are looking for a property with "good bones" that can be reimagined into a much larger residence, this is it. Key Features: Full Basement: providing massive potential to double your usable square footage or add extra bedrooms. Flexible Layout: The interior is ready to be reconfigured. With 1,120 sq. ft. to work with, you can easily open up the floor plan to create a more spacious, modern living area. This house needs a total renovation.

16. 2026-01-28
    price $16,000 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Investor Special - Massive Potential & Solid Bones This home is the ultimate blank canvas for your next project. If you are looking for a property with "good bones" that can be reimagined into a much larger residence, this is it. Key Features: Full Basement: providing massive potential to double your usable square footage or add extra bedrooms. Flexible Layout: The interior is ready to be reconfigured. With 1,120 sq. ft. to work with, you can easily open up the floor plan to create a more spacious, modern living area. This house needs a total renovation.

17. 2026-01-12
    listed $18,000 Active 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (576 chars)

    Investor Special - Massive Potential & Solid Bones This home is the ultimate blank canvas for your next project. If you are looking for a property with "good bones" that can be reimagined into a much larger residence, this is it. Key Features: Full Basement: providing massive potential to double your usable square footage or add extra bedrooms. Flexible Layout: The interior is ready to be reconfigured. With 1,120 sq. ft. to work with, you can easily open up the floor plan to create a more spacious, modern living area. This house needs a total renovation.

18. 2005-08-31
    historical
19. 2004-11-05
    listed $6,900
20. 2004-11-04
    historical
21. 2004-06-03
    listed $8,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $191 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $191 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$191
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,096
• − Management: −$1,096
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $9,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,393
• After-tax cash flow: $7,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 8,577
• Household income: $28,526
• Rent vs Own: 58.8% rent · 41.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 392.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Hispanic / Latino 3% White 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 253.2856
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+68.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $15,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $16,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $18,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-31 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-05 Listed $6,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-04 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-03 Listed $8,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-18.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $191 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.