Southfork Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$319,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

$41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Southfork floorplan is a spacious two-story home designed for both comfort and style. Offering 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, it provides plenty of room for family and guests. The open living areas create a welcoming flow throughout the main level, while a versatile upstairs game room adds the perfect space for entertainment or relaxation, as well as a flex space. You have the option to add a door from the laundry room to the primary closet, or keep them separate. With its thoughtful layout and modern design, the Southfork is a home that adapts beautifully to the way you live.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 118 days

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $329,227.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-460 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,933 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.99%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,227
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -2.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18400 Sun Haven Cv	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,343 (-2%)	4mo	$273,900	$117	82
13444 Barn Chime St	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,257 (-5%)	3mo	$314,990	$140	81
18436 Windtree Ln	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,420 (+2%)	3mo	$282,000	$117	76
13504 Muny Pkwy	0.18mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,160 (-9%)	1mo	$299,990	$139	68
13509 Barn Chime St	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,086 (-12%)	3mo	$319,990	$153	67
18316 Willow Sage Ln	0.37mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,209 (-7%)	2mo	$265,000	$120	64
13505 Muny Pkwy	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,140 (-10%)	8mo	$329,890	$154	62
13631 Barn Chime St	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,640 (+11%)	7mo	$389,990	$148	59
17816 Honey Locust Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,146 (-10%)	2mo	$199,999	$93	50
13605 Hamilton Hart Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,211 (-7%)	6mo	$374,990	$170	48
13524 Wandering Rhett Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,168 (-9%)	9mo	$359,990	$166	46
18354 Basket Flower Bnd	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,103 (-12%)	8mo	$298,000	$142	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $150,337
• Equity at exit: $296,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $466,470
• Equity at exit: $639,615

Cash invested: $92,183 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,349 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,727
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,938/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,932

Max offer price $262,629

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-346	+0% $-460	+5% $-574	+10% $-688
Rent	-10% $-646	-5% $-553	+0% $-460	+5% $-367	+10% $-275
Rate	-1.0pp $-294	-0.5pp $-377	base $-460	+0.5pp $-546	+1.0pp $-632

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,307
• Closing costs: $9,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	0.09mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	0.28mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	0.28mi
18408 Cloudmore Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,150	$0.89	0d	1	0.36mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	6d	1	0.44mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	0.45mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.45mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.55mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	18d	1	0.66mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	45d	1	0.68mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	45d	1	0.78mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	45d	1	1.10mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	1.18mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	22d	1	1.38mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	1.41mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	1.41mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	19d	1	1.41mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	19d	1	1.43mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	23d	1	1.43mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	6d	1	1.44mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	1.44mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	4d	1	1.45mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	0d	1	1.48mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	5d	1	1.49mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,990 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,990 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,990 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,990 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,990 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,990 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,990 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,990 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,990 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $319,990 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $326,990 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $326,990 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $326,990 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $326,990 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    The Southfork floorplan is a spacious two-story home designed for both comfort and style. Offering 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, it provides plenty of room for family and guests. The open living areas create a welcoming flow throughout the main level, while a versatile upstairs game room adds the perfect space for entertainment or relaxation, as well as a flex space. You have the option to add a door from the laundry room to the primary closet, or keep them separate. With its thoughtful layout and modern design, the Southfork is a home that adapts beautifully to the way you live.

16. 2026-02-23
    listed $324,990 Active 586-char remark

    Show marketing remark (586 chars)

    The Southfork floorplan is a spacious two-story home designed for both comfort and style. Offering 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, it provides plenty of room for family and guests. The open living areas create a welcoming flow throughout the main level, while a versatile upstairs game room adds the perfect space for entertainment or relaxation, as well as a flex space. You have the option to add a door from the laundry room to the primary closet, or keep them separate. With its thoughtful layout and modern design, the Southfork is a home that adapts beautifully to the way you live.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,442
• − Property taxes: −$4,938
• − Insurance: −$1,646
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,255
• − Management: −$2,255
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$9,578
• Taxable loss: −$11,415
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,740
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $326,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-23 Listed $324,990 Zillow