Arrowhead Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$345,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,741 sqft · Townhouse · 266 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This spacious single-story attached home features an open layout among the dining room, kitchen and living room, with sliding doors that extend to the lanai for outdoor activities. Near the foyer are two secondary bedrooms, while the owner's suite is tucked away on the other side for extra privacy. Tee off on the 18-hole Gordon Lewis-designed course and relax at the nearly 17,000 sq. ft. clubhouse with on-site dining. Enjoy the vastness of the fitness and spa amenities and resort-style pool area for ultimate relaxation. Bundled social memberships available!

Key facts

• 18-hole course
• 17
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SLIDING DOORS
• LANAI
• OWNER'S SUITE
• 18-HOLE COURSE
• 17

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Ave Maria, FL 34142
• Financial info: List price $345,999

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction, Arrowhead plan; Single-family residence (plan inventory)
• Construction: New construction (Plan: Arrowhead)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,741 (plan measurement)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-based new construction)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $346k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $346k).
• Recommended offer: $304k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,646/mo this rent would consume 89% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $97k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $304,479 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.84%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $44,898
• Equity at exit: $82,720

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $158,630
• Equity at exit: $86,182

Cash invested: $96,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,646 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,814
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$432 /mo · $5,190/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$976
• Net cashflow: $1,127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,219

Max offer price $345,999

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,500
• Closing costs: $10,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4217 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	23d	1	0.01mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4223 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,395	$2.08	23d	1	0.01mi
6036 Ellerston WAY #1311 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$4,490	$2.58	23d	1	0.01mi
5704 Melbourne Ct #6712 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	23d	1	0.01mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3011 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,495	$1.59	23d	1	0.01mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir #4726 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,095	$1.82	14d	1	0.01mi
5835 Double Eagle CIR #4714 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	23d	1	0.01mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4316 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,495	$4.76	23d	1	0.01mi
6012 Ellerston WAY #1121 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$6,295	$2.98	23d	1	0.01mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir #4416 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	23d	1	0.01mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4338 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	23d	1	0.01mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4218 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	23d	1	0.01mi
6039 Ellerston WAY #2017 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	23d	1	0.01mi
5710 Melbourne Ct #6511 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	23d	1	0.01mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	21d	1	0.15mi
6082 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,145	$3.03	23d	2	0.17mi
6023 Ellerston Way #1823 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,995	$1.77	23d	1	0.21mi
5909 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1850	$10,995	$5.94	23d	1	0.24mi
5937 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2061	$4,995	$2.42	23d	1	0.25mi
6058 National Blvd #343 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,000	$3.35	23d	1	0.25mi
6058 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1210	$5,795	$4.79	23d	2	0.26mi
6058 National Blvd #335 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	14d	1	0.26mi
5938 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$10,995	$4.89	23d	1	0.28mi
6046 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$4,395	$3.81	23d	2	0.29mi
5981 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2224	$5,995	$2.70	23d	1	0.32mi
5985 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	2061	$10,995	$5.33	23d	1	0.33mi
6034 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1137	$4,046	$3.56	14d	3	0.35mi
5997 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,995	$3.11	23d	1	0.36mi
5476 Katia Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1983	$4,300	$2.17	23d	1	0.37mi
5410 Double Eagle Cir #2222 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	23d	1	0.38mi
5428 Double Eagle Cir #2517 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,695	$1.99	23d	1	0.38mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4742 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	23d	1	0.41mi
5807 Double Eagle Cir #4631 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$5,695	$4.38	23d	1	0.41mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir #2915 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$6,295	$4.61	21d	1	0.42mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,295	$2.41	23d	1	0.44mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2812 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	14d	1	0.44mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,995	$2.21	23d	1	0.44mi
5967 Sunningdale St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2061	$3,500	$1.70	23d	1	0.47mi
5478 Double Eagle Cir #3515 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	23d	1	0.48mi
5466 Double Eagle Cir #3425 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,995	$4.42	23d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,999 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,999 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,999 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,999 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $345,999 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,999 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,999 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,999 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $345,999 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,999 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,999 Active 248 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $345,999 Active 247 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,381
• − Property taxes: −$5,190
• − Insurance: −$3,554
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,460
• − Management: −$4,460
• − Depreciation: −$10,065
• Taxable income: $8,637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,073
• After-tax cash flow: $11,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B