324 New Joy Dr · Timberlake, VA 24588

$154,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1976 5.90 ac lot Est $241k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy peaceful country living in this beautifully remodeled home situated on 5.9 private acres with breathtaking long-range mountain views stretching over 40 miles. Recent updates include new siding, front and rear decks, energy-efficient mini-split heating and air systems, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, and carpet in the bedrooms. The completely renovated kitchen features new cabinets, countertops, and sink, while the full bathroom has been fully remodeled with updated plumbing, a full-size vanity, and a glass door walk-in shower. The primary bedroom offers a walk-in closet, and a bonus room is perfect for a nursery, office, or hobby space. A new storage shed conveys. Surrounded b

Key facts

• Private acres
• New siding
• Front and rear decks

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• LONG-RANGE MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• NEW SIDING
• FRONT AND REAR DECKS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Storage structure; Property has a view; Approximately 5.9 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Pantry; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Timberlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Yellow Branch Elementary (math 60% / reading 63%, grade B, #516 of 1,108 statewide, top 47%, 573 students, 74% FRL); Brookville Middle (math 44% / reading 72%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 715 students, 74% FRL); Brookville High (math 66% / reading 82%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 971 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $155k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,966 (1.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.01%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Clarks Rd	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	960 (0%)	23mo	$241,000	$251	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,743
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $17,558
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24588

• Home prices YoY: -20.5%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,520 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $411/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $154,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $411 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$859/yr (+$72/mo · 208.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$411
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,459
• − Management: −$1,459
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$228
• After-tax cash flow: $3,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Timberlake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,664

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: German 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.33%
• Current HPI: 183.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+318.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $154,900 LMLS
• 2021-08-11 Sold (MLS) $86,000 LMLS
• 2021-07-06 Listed $80,000 LMLS
• 2019-09-09 Listed $68,900 LMLS
• 2019-01-21 Listed $83,000 LMLS
• 2018-01-12 Listed $67,500 LMLS
• 2016-12-18 Listed $73,900 LMLS
• 2016-12-18 Listed $73,900 LMLS
• 2011-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $411 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.