22 Jackson St · Onancock, VA 23417

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1960 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1,280 sq. ft. ranch-style residence situated on a . 25-acre lot. This single-story home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Property is owned by the US Dept. of HUD. HUD Case #: 541-753412 Insurability Code: IE. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD Homes are sold "AS-IS. " Lead-Based Paint disclosure is required. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute for buyer's closing costs, upon buyer request. Owner Occ, non-profit and other gov agencies ONLY for first 15 days of listing.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 41 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.6% in Onancock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#379 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Accawmacke Elementary (math 34% / reading 50%, grade F, #866 of 1,108 statewide, top 80%, 396 students, 106% FRL); Nandua High (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A-, #63 of 319 statewide, top 22%, 636 students, 119% FRL) — zoned schools average 112% FRL vs 63% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.05%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,680
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Market St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-4%)	13mo	$1,550	$1	70
14 Johnson St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	12mo	$339,000	$252	59
11 Hillcrest Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+4%)	10mo	$230,000	$172	56
12 Johnson St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+6%)	16mo	$339,500	$249	53
24 Justis St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	24mo	$311,000	$231	49
24 Justis St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	24mo	$311,000	$231	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-4,895
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $13,360
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23417

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $916

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-23
   status Pending 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   1,280 sq. ft. ranch-style residence situated on a . 25-acre lot. This single-story home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Property is owned by the US Dept. of HUD. HUD Case #: 541-753412 Insurability Code: IE. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD Homes are sold "AS-IS. " Lead-Based Paint disclosure is required. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute for buyer's closing costs, upon buyer request. Owner Occ, non-profit and other gov agencies ONLY for first 15 days of listing.

2. 2026-02-12
   status Under Contract
3. 2026-01-12
   historical Active Under Contract 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   1,280 sq. ft. ranch-style residence situated on a . 25-acre lot. This single-story home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Property is owned by the US Dept. of HUD. HUD Case #: 541-753412 Insurability Code: IE. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD Homes are sold "AS-IS. " Lead-Based Paint disclosure is required. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute for buyer's closing costs, upon buyer request. Owner Occ, non-profit and other gov agencies ONLY for first 15 days of listing.

4. 2026-01-12
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   1,280 sq. ft. ranch-style residence situated on a . 25-acre lot. This single-story home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Property is owned by the US Dept. of HUD. HUD Case #: 541-753412 Insurability Code: IE. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD Homes are sold "AS-IS. " Lead-Based Paint disclosure is required. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute for buyer's closing costs, upon buyer request. Owner Occ, non-profit and other gov agencies ONLY for first 15 days of listing.

5. 2026-01-02
   listed $115,000 Active 539-char remark

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   1,280 sq. ft. ranch-style residence situated on a . 25-acre lot. This single-story home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Property is owned by the US Dept. of HUD. HUD Case #: 541-753412 Insurability Code: IE. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD Homes are sold "AS-IS. " Lead-Based Paint disclosure is required. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute for buyer's closing costs, upon buyer request. Owner Occ, non-profit and other gov agencies ONLY for first 15 days of listing.

6. 2026-01-02
   listed $115,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (539 chars)

   1,280 sq. ft. ranch-style residence situated on a . 25-acre lot. This single-story home features 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Property is owned by the US Dept. of HUD. HUD Case #: 541-753412 Insurability Code: IE. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD Homes are sold "AS-IS. " Lead-Based Paint disclosure is required. Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute for buyer's closing costs, upon buyer request. Owner Occ, non-profit and other gov agencies ONLY for first 15 days of listing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$182
• After-tax cash flow: $2,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Onancock

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #15366

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Onancock, VA
• Population (ZIP): 3,862

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 34% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.12%
• Current HPI: 195.9208
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Pending — ESAR
• 2026-02-12 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-01-12 Contingent — ESAR
• 2026-01-12 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $115,000 ESAR
• 2026-01-02 Listed $115,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.