5119 Panay Park Dr · Houston, TX 77048

$237,700

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2015 7,331 sqft lot Est $198k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious, newly renovated house on a quiet street. This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom house features large rooms, new floors/carpets, light fixtures and a 2 car garage! Large backyard perfect for entertaining friends and family. Come schedule your showing today, won’t last long! (all room measurements are approximates)

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Fenced in back yard
• 7,331 sq ft lot

Tags

• QUIET STREET
• FENCED IN BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2015; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 7,330 square feet; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (9 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (9 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling (Central Air)
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,442 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.26%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12106 Panay Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (+0%)	1mo	$199,900	$130	90
11926 Panay Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,494 (-2%)	2mo	$230,000	$154	84
5315 Fairgreen Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,576 (+3%)	2mo	$199,990	$127	77
11406 Glenhollow Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,514 (-1%)	2mo	$139,999	$92	67
12302 Swae Lee	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,540 (+1%)	1mo	$243,800	$158	65
12702 Fawnway Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,698 (+11%)	2mo	$215,000	$127	64
5102 Tavenor Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,724 (+13%)	2mo	$220,000	$128	60
5227 Honeyvine Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (-8%)	2mo	$199,000	$141	59
12015 Rosecroft Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+1%)	1mo	$199,999	$130	59
11407 Murr Way	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,592 (+4%)	3mo	$143,000	$90	57
4807 Tili And Gili St	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (-7%)	2mo	$249,990	$176	53
4218 Richmeadow Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-9%)	0mo	$238,500	$172	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $5,426
• Equity at exit: $101,722

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $42,335
• Equity at exit: $152,869

Cash invested: $66,556 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,247
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,550/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,183

Max offer price $196,008

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,425
• Closing costs: $7,131
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	43d	1	0.34mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	0.42mi
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,661	$1.60	4d	13	0.56mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,691	$1.09	7d	1	0.57mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	18d	1	0.63mi
4510 Bungalow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	43d	1	0.66mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	11d	1	0.80mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,281	$1.10	3d	1	0.80mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	11d	1	0.80mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	24d	1	0.91mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	43d	1	0.96mi
4814 Centipede Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1701	$1,950	$1.15	22d	1	0.99mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	5d	1	1.00mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	1d	26	1.09mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	43d	35	1.12mi
13311 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,250	$1.41	43d	1	1.14mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,480	$1.13	43d	1	1.15mi
5458 Osprey Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,595	$0.99	20d	1	1.17mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	7d	1	1.26mi
13442 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,195	$1.54	22d	1	1.30mi
5726 Waterford Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,850	$0.93	10d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,700 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $237,700 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $241,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $241,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $241,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $241,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $241,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $241,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $241,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $241,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    listed $245,000 Active
14. 2022-01-14
    price $1,515
15. 2021-08-03
    soldstatus
16. 2021-08-02
    soldstatus Sold 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Spacious, newly renovated house on a quiet street. This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom house features large rooms, new floors/carpets, light fixtures and a 2 car garage! Large backyard perfect for entertaining friends and family. Come schedule your showing today, won’t last long! (all room measurements are approximates)

17. 2021-07-24
    status Pending 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Spacious, newly renovated house on a quiet street. This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom house features large rooms, new floors/carpets, light fixtures and a 2 car garage! Large backyard perfect for entertaining friends and family. Come schedule your showing today, won’t last long! (all room measurements are approximates)

18. 2021-07-12
    status Option Pending 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Spacious, newly renovated house on a quiet street. This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom house features large rooms, new floors/carpets, light fixtures and a 2 car garage! Large backyard perfect for entertaining friends and family. Come schedule your showing today, won’t last long! (all room measurements are approximates)

19. 2021-07-12
    status Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Spacious, newly renovated house on a quiet street. This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom house features large rooms, new floors/carpets, light fixtures and a 2 car garage! Large backyard perfect for entertaining friends and family. Come schedule your showing today, won’t last long! (all room measurements are approximates)

20. 2021-07-04
    status Pending 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Spacious, newly renovated house on a quiet street. This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom house features large rooms, new floors/carpets, light fixtures and a 2 car garage! Large backyard perfect for entertaining friends and family. Come schedule your showing today, won’t last long! (all room measurements are approximates)

21. 2021-06-23
    status Option Pending 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Spacious, newly renovated house on a quiet street. This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom house features large rooms, new floors/carpets, light fixtures and a 2 car garage! Large backyard perfect for entertaining friends and family. Come schedule your showing today, won’t last long! (all room measurements are approximates)

22. 2021-06-17
    listed $209,000 Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Spacious, newly renovated house on a quiet street. This 4 bedroom 2 bathroom house features large rooms, new floors/carpets, light fixtures and a 2 car garage! Large backyard perfect for entertaining friends and family. Come schedule your showing today, won’t last long! (all room measurements are approximates)

23. 2021-04-28
    soldstatus
24. 2018-08-31
    soldstatus Sold 35-char remark

    Show marketing remark (35 chars)

    Home will be ready for move in 9/1.

25. 2018-08-20
    listed $1,500 Active 35-char remark

    Show marketing remark (35 chars)

    Home will be ready for move in 9/1.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,550 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,550 · $379/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,315
• − Property taxes: −$4,550
• − Insurance: −$1,188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$6,915
• Taxable loss: −$6,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16233.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-14 Price Changed $1,515 RENT.
• 2021-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-07-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-07-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-17 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-08-20 Listed $1,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+26.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,550 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.