188 Cottonwood Dr · South Toledo Bend, TX 75932

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1976 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Step into the unique character of this 1970s mobile home, featuring two bedrooms and two bathrooms. While this home has its original vintage charm, it does need a little TLC making it an excellent opportunity for a new owner to put their personal touch on the space. With a cozy living area and plenty of potential, this home is perfect for someone looking to customize and restore a classic. Come see the possibilities and make this vintage gem your own!

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot approximately 0.36 acres; Located in the Toledo Village subdivision

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Carpet, tile, and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Burkeville ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #966 of 1,141 in TX (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.21%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $56,909
• Equity at exit: $59,511

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.03×
• Total profit: $147,702
• Equity at exit: $120,630

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75932

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,076 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $649/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $606

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $414	-5% $392	+0% $371	+5% $350	+10% $329
Rent	-10% $286	-5% $329	+0% $371	+5% $414	+10% $456
Rate	-1.0pp $409	-0.5pp $390	base $371	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 455-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $649 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$723/yr (+$60/mo · 111.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$649
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,033
• − Management: −$1,033
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,436
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$825
• After-tax cash flow: $3,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkeville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,753
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #11672
• State rank: #966 of 1141 in TX

Livability — South Toledo Bend

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1431
• US rank: #24460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Toledo Bend, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,339

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Hungarian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.49%
• Current HPI: 214.4428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $75,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2019-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-11-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $649 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.