Diana Plan · Magnolia, TX 77447

$261,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · SingleFamily · 218 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting single-story home spans 1,539 square feet and presents an efficient floor plan designed for both comfort and functionality. Featuring three bedrooms, including a primary suite, this floor plan caters to families or individuals seeking versatile living spaces. The two strategically placed bathrooms enhance convenience and privacy, while the two-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This thoughtfully designed one-story home strikes a perfect balance between practicality and cozy living.

Key facts

• Hockley texas
• Popular dining spots
• Waller high school

Tags

• HOCKLEY TEXAS
• TOP RATED SCHOOLS
• ROBERTS ROAD ELEMENTARY
• WALLER JUNIOR HIGH
• WALLER HIGH SCHOOL
• POPULAR DINING SPOTS

🏗️ New construction. The $261,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $328,902.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-596 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,308 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.76%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,902
• List price: $261,990
• Delta: -20.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Elm Spring Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,539 (0%)	3mo	$257,990	$168	98
101 Rising Cedar Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-3%)	2mo	$249,990	$168	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-97,429
• Equity at exit: $49,040

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-157,612
• Equity at exit: $28,437

Cash invested: $92,093 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,934/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,877

Max offer price $242,698

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-368	-5% $-482	+0% $-596	+5% $-709	+10% $-823
Rent	-10% $-763	-5% $-680	+0% $-596	+5% $-512	+10% $-428
Rate	-1.0pp $-430	-0.5pp $-512	base $-596	+0.5pp $-681	+1.0pp $-768

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,226
• Closing costs: $9,867
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $261,990 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $261,990 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $261,990 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $261,990 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $261,990 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $261,990 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $261,990 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $261,990 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $261,990 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $261,990 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $261,990 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $261,990 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,990 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,990 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-02-18
    price $261,990 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    This inviting single-story home spans 1,539 square feet and presents an efficient floor plan designed for both comfort and functionality. Featuring three bedrooms, including a primary suite, this floor plan caters to families or individuals seeking versatile living spaces. The two strategically placed bathrooms enhance convenience and privacy, while the two-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This thoughtfully designed one-story home strikes a perfect balance between practicality and cozy living.

16. 2026-01-29
    price $271,990 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    This inviting single-story home spans 1,539 square feet and presents an efficient floor plan designed for both comfort and functionality. Featuring three bedrooms, including a primary suite, this floor plan caters to families or individuals seeking versatile living spaces. The two strategically placed bathrooms enhance convenience and privacy, while the two-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This thoughtfully designed one-story home strikes a perfect balance between practicality and cozy living.

17. 2025-11-15
    listed $267,990 Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    This inviting single-story home spans 1,539 square feet and presents an efficient floor plan designed for both comfort and functionality. Featuring three bedrooms, including a primary suite, this floor plan caters to families or individuals seeking versatile living spaces. The two strategically placed bathrooms enhance convenience and privacy, while the two-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This thoughtfully designed one-story home strikes a perfect balance between practicality and cozy living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,424
• − Property taxes: −$4,934
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,038
• − Management: −$2,038
• − Depreciation: −$9,568
• Taxable loss: −$13,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Clean and maintain landscaping — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Clean and maintain landscaping — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-15 Listed $267,990 Zillow