146 Quail Run Rd · Kirbyville, MO 65616

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,245 sqft · Other public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1999 5,663 sqft lot $48/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Patio off garage
• Community pool
• 5,663 sq ft lot

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• PRIVACY FENCED BACK YARD
• PATIO OFF GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-313/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Kirbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#494 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Primary (345 students, 72% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1048 active listings in the ZIP; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,723 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-35,103
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-33,620
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1048
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $200,393

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

2. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

3. 2026-02-24
   price $205,000

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

4. 2026-02-24
   price $205,000 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

5. 2025-12-03
   price $210,000 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

6. 2025-12-03
   price $210,000

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

7. 2025-11-08
   price $213,000

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

8. 2025-11-08
   price $213,000 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

9. 2025-10-07
   listed $219,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

10. 2025-10-07
    listed $219,900 Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Close to everything Branson located in the Highlands neighborhood, this charming home is waiting for it's new owner to claim it and call it home. The neighborhood features a community pool, lawn care and a community of neighbors. Step inside to find a spacious living area, dining and kitchen complete with appliances. The main ensuite has double entrance doors to the main bath and two other bedrooms share a hall bath. Outside find a privacy fenced back yard completely level with a patio just off the garage for entertaining guests or family bar-b-ques. This charming home won't last long so schedule your private tour today!

11. 2024-08-12
    soldstatus Closed 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Summer Ready, Affordable, and Fresh! NEW Kitchen, NEW carpets, 2021 HVAC, and 2020 Roof in a GREAT Branson neighborhood! Move-In Ready home with fully fenced yard and storage shed just minutes from Branson Landing. With a cute front porch sittin' area, this home includes a walkable neighborhood with pool, basketball court, and entire yard mowed! This home features an open plan with vaulted ceilings and plenty of counter space. Make your move now and enjoy all this home has to offer!

12. 2024-08-12
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Summer Ready, Affordable, and Fresh! NEW Kitchen, NEW carpets, 2021 HVAC, and 2020 Roof in a GREAT Branson neighborhood! Move-In Ready home with fully fenced yard and storage shed just minutes from Branson Landing. With a cute front porch sittin' area, this home includes a walkable neighborhood with pool, basketball court, and entire yard mowed! This home features an open plan with vaulted ceilings and plenty of counter space. Make your move now and enjoy all this home has to offer!

13. 2024-07-10
    status Pending 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Summer Ready, Affordable, and Fresh! NEW Kitchen, NEW carpets, 2021 HVAC, and 2020 Roof in a GREAT Branson neighborhood! Move-In Ready home with fully fenced yard and storage shed just minutes from Branson Landing. With a cute front porch sittin' area, this home includes a walkable neighborhood with pool, basketball court, and entire yard mowed! This home features an open plan with vaulted ceilings and plenty of counter space. Make your move now and enjoy all this home has to offer!

14. 2024-07-08
    status Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Summer Ready, Affordable, and Fresh! NEW Kitchen, NEW carpets, 2021 HVAC, and 2020 Roof in a GREAT Branson neighborhood! Move-In Ready home with fully fenced yard and storage shed just minutes from Branson Landing. With a cute front porch sittin' area, this home includes a walkable neighborhood with pool, basketball court, and entire yard mowed! This home features an open plan with vaulted ceilings and plenty of counter space. Make your move now and enjoy all this home has to offer!

15. 2024-06-14
    historical 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Summer Ready, Affordable, and Fresh! NEW Kitchen, NEW carpets, 2021 HVAC, and 2020 Roof in a GREAT Branson neighborhood! Move-In Ready home with fully fenced yard and storage shed just minutes from Branson Landing. With a cute front porch sittin' area, this home includes a walkable neighborhood with pool, basketball court, and entire yard mowed! This home features an open plan with vaulted ceilings and plenty of counter space. Make your move now and enjoy all this home has to offer!

16. 2024-06-01
    listed $194,900 Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Summer Ready, Affordable, and Fresh! NEW Kitchen, NEW carpets, 2021 HVAC, and 2020 Roof in a GREAT Branson neighborhood! Move-In Ready home with fully fenced yard and storage shed just minutes from Branson Landing. With a cute front porch sittin' area, this home includes a walkable neighborhood with pool, basketball court, and entire yard mowed! This home features an open plan with vaulted ceilings and plenty of counter space. Make your move now and enjoy all this home has to offer!

17. 2023-04-20
    soldstatus
18. 2023-04-19
    soldstatus Closed
19. 2023-03-10
    status Pending
20. 2023-03-09
    status Active
21. 2023-01-23
    status Pending
22. 2023-01-23
    price $170,000
23. 2023-01-20
    listed $160,000 Active
24. 2003-03-06
    soldstatus
25. 2002-10-04
    soldstatus
26. 1999-03-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,225/yr (+$102/mo · 160.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$939
• After-tax cash flow: $626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kirbyville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #19167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Taney County · 28,460 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1065.0

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+28.1% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-22 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $205,000 SOMO
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $205,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $210,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $210,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $213,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $213,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $219,900 SOMO
• 2025-10-07 Listed $219,900 NWARMLS
• 2024-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-08-12 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2024-07-10 Pending — SOMO
• 2024-07-08 Relisted — SOMO
• 2024-06-14 Delisted — SOMO
• 2024-06-01 Listed $194,900 SOMO
• 2023-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-19 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2023-03-10 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-03-09 Relisted — SOMO
• 2023-01-23 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-01-23 Price Changed $170,000 SOMO
• 2023-01-20 Listed $160,000 SOMO
• 2003-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.