TBD Queens Row · Goodrich, TX 77351

$80,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Built 1971 Poor condition 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Small home on almost a half acre. Needs work. Conveniently located off of Hwy US-59. Located only a few minutes from Downtown Livingston.

Key facts

• Half acre
• Conveniently located
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• HALF ACRE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.8% in Goodrich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,053 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1197 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.87%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $4,734
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $26,955
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1197
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $333	-5% $305	+0% $278	+5% $250	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $236	+0% $278	+5% $319	+10% $361
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $298	base $278	+0.5pp $257	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $80,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-02-09
    listed $80,000 Active 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Small home on almost a half acre. Needs work. Conveniently located off of Hwy US-59. Located only a few minutes from Downtown Livingston.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $2,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$525
• After-tax cash flow: $2,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including landscaping and exterior improvements, to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major overgrown grass and weeds — Needs significant landscaping to improve curb appeal
• Major exterior maintenance — Overgrown grass and weeds indicate lack of maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances both resale and rental value
• Both exterior painting — Improves curb appeal and home value
• Both interior updates — Enhances home's livability and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
overgrown grass and weeds · Needs significant landscaping to improve curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior maintenance · Overgrown grass and weeds indicate lack of maintenance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances both resale and rental value ↑
• Both exterior painting — Improves curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both interior updates — Enhances home's livability and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Goodrich

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #18692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $80,000 HARMLS