1835 Garnet Breeze Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$228,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,605 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2015 5,318 sqft lot $88/sqft · 21% below area Est $289k · 21% under $133/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious two-story home featuring 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, with the primary suite conveniently located on the first floor. This home offers a functional layout including a dining area and a versatile game room, providing plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining. Full of potential, this property is a great opportunity to make it your own. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 5,318 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($373/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $228k).
• Recommended offer: $214k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,320 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,853
• List price: $228,000
• Delta: -21.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9430 Grand Spark Dr	0.31mi	5/2.5	2,616 (+0%)	3mo	$289,000	$110	83
9430 Calm Amber Dr	0.41mi	5/2.5	2,616 (+0%)	5mo	$300,000	$115	76
1322 Diamond Drape Dr	0.50mi	5/2.5	2,616 (+0%)	5mo	$215,000	$82	72
9726 Shimmering Lakes Dr	0.29mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,498 (-4%)	3mo	$295,000	$118	68
9643 Clear Diamond Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,765 (+6%)	4mo	$328,000	$119	66
9935 Clear Diamond Drive Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,657 (+2%)	6mo	$354,000	$133	65
9815 Shimmering Lakes Dr	0.33mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,842 (+9%)	0mo	$355,000	$125	60
9915 Bezeled Circle Ln	0.36mi	5/3.0	2,877 (+10%)	10mo	$369,000	$128	55
9439 Emerald Lakes Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,832 (+9%)	3mo	$349,000	$123	52
9107 Serene Hvn	0.53mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,322 (-11%)	2mo	$355,865	$153	51
9435 Silver Beryl Ln	0.29mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,971 (+14%)	6mo	$349,000	$117	49
2518 Platinum Chase Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,361 (-9%)	4mo	$300,000	$127	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-41,739
• Equity at exit: $33,996

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-60,119
• Equity at exit: $19,713

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,876 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$817 /mo · $9,806/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,836

Max offer price $228,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,456	$0.94	7d	1	0.15mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	12d	1	0.69mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	43d	1	0.83mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,719	$1.64	1d	21	0.84mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	43d	7	0.85mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	1d	6	0.85mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	43d	1	0.88mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	43d	1	0.98mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,950	$1.59	16d	1	1.06mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	43d	1	1.26mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	43d	1	1.28mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	7d	1	1.40mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	18d	1	1.48mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	43d	1	1.49mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,650	$1.02	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,000 Pending 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,000 Pending 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,000 Pending 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,000 Pending 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,000 Pending 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,000 Pending 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $228,000 Pending 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $228,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    listed $245,000 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Spacious two-story home featuring 5 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, with the primary suite conveniently located on the first floor. This home offers a functional layout including a dining area and a versatile game room, providing plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining. Full of potential, this property is a great opportunity to make it your own. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,806 · $817/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,806 · $817/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$9,806
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,761
• − Management: −$2,761
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,958
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$710
• After-tax cash flow: $1,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $245,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+29.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,806 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.