1206 Lake Ave · Pascagoula, MS 39567

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,891 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1920

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great old neighborhood, did not flood during Katrina. Huge old oaks on a third of an acre. Large shaded yard. Two carports and large Gazebo in back yard . .Spacious kitchen and dining area.

Key facts

• Double lot
• Walnut countertops
• Lake elementary area

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• TONGUE-AND-GROOVE PINE FLOORS
• WALNUT COUNTERTOPS
• NEW ROOF
• LAKE ELEMENTARY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Pascagoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#41 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Pascagoula-Gautier School District (urban): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #41 of 130 in MS (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lake Elementary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #92 of 375 statewide, top 26%, 93 students, 100% FRL); William M Colmer Middle School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #69 of 179 statewide, top 40%, 554 students, 100% FRL); Pascagoula High School (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #51 of 197 statewide, top 26%, 1,187 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 78% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,624 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.40%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,607
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2003 Ray Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,945 (+3%)	2mo	$150,000	$77	74
1107 Live Oak Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,920 (+2%)	2mo	$74,000	$39	66
3827 Victor St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+0%)	2mo	$79,900	$42	62
4509 Hickory St	0.37mi	3/2.0	2,036 (+8%)	11mo	$269,900	$133	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-27,812
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,127
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39567

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,693/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,860

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $185	+0% $123	+5% $61	+10% $-1
Rent	-10% $-36	-5% $43	+0% $123	+5% $203	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $179	base $123	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1102 Tucker Ave Pascagoula, MS	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,500	$1.06	23d	1	0.99mi
3004 Dock St Pascagoula, MS	2.0	2.5	1826	$3,000	$1.64	23d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $220,000 Active
2. 2021-04-28
   soldstatus
3. 2021-04-27
   soldstatus 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   Great old neighborhood, did not flood during Katrina. Huge old oaks on a third of an acre. Large shaded yard. Two carports and large Gazebo in back yard . .Spacious kitchen and dining area.

4. 2020-07-08
   listed $144,900 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   Great old neighborhood, did not flood during Katrina. Huge old oaks on a third of an acre. Large shaded yard. Two carports and large Gazebo in back yard . .Spacious kitchen and dining area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,693 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,693 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 50% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,693
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,936
• − Management: −$1,936
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$526
• After-tax cash flow: $2,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pascagoula-Gautier School District
• NCES district ID: 2803480
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,392
• Composite: 32.86/100
• National rank: #5613
• State rank: #41 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pascagoula

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #7866

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pascagoula, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 21,731
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 10,341
• Household income: $62,254
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 308.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.05%
• Current HPI: 162.4666
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+51.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $220,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-27 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2020-07-08 Listed $144,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,693 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.