3406 Aranda Flds · San Antonio, TX 78109

$190,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,463 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2007 6,795 sqft lot $77/sqft · 26% below area Est $255k · 26% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated home located near Wagner High School! This spacious two-story property features a large living room that warmly welcomes you inside. The open kitchen is perfect for any home chef, complete with an oversized eat-in area is ideal for everyday meals or entertaining. All bedrooms are located upstairs, along with a versatile second living area or game room. The secondary bedrooms are generously sized, while the primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a spa-like bathroom, including dual sinks, a separate tub, a walk-in shower, and a large walk-in closet. This home also boasts updated light fixtures, and stylish wood-laminate flooring downstairs. Step outside to enjoy the backyard a perfect for outdoor gatherings for quiet evenings.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Second living area
• Spa-like bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• OPEN KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED EAT-IN AREA
• SECOND LIVING AREA
• SPA-LIKE BATHROOM
• DUAL SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($696/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,190
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -25.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6826 Lucky Flds	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,471 (+0%)	0mo	$265,000	$107	83
7006 Laguna Bch	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,570 (+4%)	5mo	$330,000	$128	62
6919 Malibu Cv	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,130 (-14%)	2mo	$212,000	$100	55
3713 Candlecreek Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,180 (-12%)	6mo	$215,000	$99	53
2623 Wolf Moon	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,572 (+4%)	7mo	$359,000	$140	53
2722 Green Leaf Way	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,221 (-10%)	8mo	$242,000	$109	53
6351 Wild Flower	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,165 (-12%)	1mo	$230,000	$106	52
2723 Seal Pointe	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,341 (-5%)	4mo	$335,000	$143	52
7206 Solar Eclipse	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,700 (+10%)	7mo	$339,900	$126	50
3722 Candlecreek Ct	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,180 (-12%)	7mo	$205,900	$94	49
7147 Azure Waters	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,177 (-12%)	9mo	$287,500	$132	45
6335 Fence Xing	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,166 (-12%)	5mo	$215,000	$99	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,910
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-46,336
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,046 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,445/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,972

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $112	+0% $58	+5% $4	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-23	+0% $58	+5% $139	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $106	base $58	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6703 Foster Flds Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1894	$1,850	$0.98	16d	1	0.21mi
6523 Candlecrest Ct San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1905	$1,930	$1.01	44d	1	0.22mi
3302 Uresti Flds Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	2451	$1,950	$0.80	5d	1	0.26mi
6458 Candleview Ct San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2008	$1,645	$0.82	5d	1	0.32mi
6402 Candlewick Ct San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2008	$1,790	$0.89	5d	1	0.37mi
3306 Putnam Flds Converse, TX	4.0	3.0	2451	$1,995	$0.81	25d	1	0.40mi
6615 Port Elizabeth Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,489	$0.93	5d	1	0.47mi
3515 Andromeda Way Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2403	$2,350	$0.98	17d	1	0.48mi
2635 Green Leaf Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2344	$1,900	$0.81	25d	1	0.50mi
2631 Green Leaf Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1918	$1,689	$0.88	25d	1	0.50mi
2715 Point Sur Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2056	$1,785	$0.87	5d	1	0.51mi
3606 Putnam Flds Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2486	$2,100	$0.84	44d	1	0.53mi
2610 Green Leaf Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2003	$1,995	$1.00	12d	1	0.53mi
2615 Green Leaf Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2707	$1,789	$0.66	4d	1	0.53mi
7111 Azure Waters Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$1,800	$1.09	16d	1	0.53mi
3123 Saturn Path Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,975	$1.02	5d	1	0.54mi
7010 Daybreak Peaks San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2704	$1,771	$0.65	25d	1	0.56mi
3633 Candlebrook Ln San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$1,495	$0.92	25d	1	0.57mi
3710 Candleglenn San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,650	$1.04	4d	1	0.57mi
9010 Phoenix Path Converse, TX	5.0	3.0	2910	$2,800	$0.96	2d	1	0.57mi
2338 Camberly Vw Converse, TX	4.0	3.0	2122	$1,850	$0.87	25d	1	0.57mi
2607 Bluff Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2241	$1,650	$0.74	5d	1	0.58mi
6634 Poseidon Way Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1990	$1,750	$0.88	44d	1	0.60mi
6634 Poseidon Way Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1990	$1,750	$0.88	23d	1	0.60mi
6323 Wild Flower Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,095	$0.90	4d	1	0.61mi
2409 Key Hole Vw Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,600	$1.00	13d	1	0.62mi
2730 Brighton Park Converse, TX	4.0	3.5	2675	$2,450	$0.92	2d	1	0.64mi
7163 Lunar Eclipse Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$2,200	$1.14	11d	1	0.67mi
6527 San Miguel Way Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	2042	$1,475	$0.72	44d	1	0.68mi
3619 Storm Moon Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,695	$1.05	44d	1	0.70mi
5223 Fawn Lk San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	1831	$1,750	$0.96	4d	1	0.71mi
7222 Lunar Eclipse Converse, TX	4.0	3.0	2816	$2,575	$0.91	2d	1	0.76mi
6106 Candletree San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	1633	$2,600	$1.59	2d	1	0.77mi
5990 Catalina Sunrise Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	3d	1	0.78mi
7111 Marina del Rey Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2423	$1,991	$0.82	5d	1	0.79mi
7046 Zuma Bch Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	2392	$2,000	$0.84	25d	1	0.80mi
6114 Hackberry Pond San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2043	$1,695	$0.83	44d	1	0.81mi
5910 Summer Fest Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1812	$2,150	$1.19	44d	1	0.84mi
7203 Marina del Rey Converse, TX	5.0	2.5	2311	$2,120	$0.92	20d	1	0.85mi
2638 Willow Pond San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2320	$1,900	$0.82	44d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $190,000 New 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Beautifully updated home located near Wagner High School! This spacious two-story property features a large living room that warmly welcomes you inside. The open kitchen is perfect for any home chef, complete with an oversized eat-in area is ideal for everyday meals or entertaining. All bedrooms are located upstairs, along with a versatile second living area or game room. The secondary bedrooms are generously sized, while the primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a spa-like bathroom, including dual sinks, a separate tub, a walk-in shower, and a large walk-in closet. This home also boasts updated light fixtures, and stylish wood-laminate flooring downstairs. Step outside to enjoy the backyard a perfect for outdoor gatherings for quiet evenings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,445 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,445 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$5,445
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$550
• After-tax cash flow: $1,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1732.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $190,000 LERA

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,445 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.