221 N County Road 2850 · Lubbock, TX 79403

$116,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · Manufactured public records · 375 Days on market

Built 1982 1.00 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your ideal mobile home on 2 expansive acres, offering plenty of space and potential! Nestled in a peaceful county setting with no HOA restrictions, this property gives you the freedom to expand - even adding another mobile home for investment or additional living space. The home has been beautifully renovated, featuring a brand-new interior, a new roof, and updated well and septic systems. It's truly move-in ready! Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own this upgraded property today - schedule your tour now!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Freedom to expand
• No hoa restrictions

Tags

• EXPANSIVE ACRES
• PEACEFUL COUNTY SETTING
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• FREEDOM TO EXPAND
• NEW ROOF
• MOVE-IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Roosevelt ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #553 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $805 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 375 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 375 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-10,496
• Equity at exit: $17,371

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,726
• Equity at exit: $10,073

Cash invested: $32,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$611
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $316/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $868

Max offer price $116,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $190	+0% $157	+5% $124	+10% $91
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $115	+0% $157	+5% $199	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $187	base $157	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,125
• Closing costs: $3,495
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $116,500 Active 375 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $116,500 Active 372 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $116,500 Active 371 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $116,500 Active 370 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $116,500 Active 369 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $116,500 Active 367 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $116,500 Active 364 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $116,500 Active 363 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $116,500 Active 362 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $116,500 Active 361 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $116,500 Active 358 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $116,500 Active 357 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $116,500 Active 356 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $116,500 Active 355 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $116,500 Active 354 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $116,500 Active 353 DOM
17. 2025-06-11
    listed $116,500 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    Discover your ideal mobile home on 2 expansive acres, offering plenty of space and potential! Nestled in a peaceful county setting with no HOA restrictions, this property gives you the freedom to expand - even adding another mobile home for investment or additional living space. The home has been beautifully renovated, featuring a brand-new interior, a new roof, and updated well and septic systems. It's truly move-in ready! Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own this upgraded property today - schedule your tour now!

18. 2025-03-27
    price $116,500
19. 2025-02-19
    price $118,000
20. 2024-12-20
    price $122,500
21. 2002-08-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $316 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,132 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,816/yr (+$151/mo · 574.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,526
• − Property taxes: −$316
• − Insurance: −$582
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,024
• − Management: −$1,024
• − Depreciation: −$3,389
• Taxable loss: −$58
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14
• After-tax cash flow: $1,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roosevelt ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837800
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 28.63/100
• National rank: #6707
• State rank: #553 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-11 Listed $116,500 LARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $116,500 LARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $118,000 LARMLS
• 2024-12-20 Price Changed $122,500 LARMLS
• 2002-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $316 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.