16905 Glenheath · Conroe, TX 77316

$75,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 696 sqft · Manufactured public records · 120 Days on market

Built 2010 2,099 sqft lot $108/sqft · 9% above area Est $69k · 9% over $35/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in the Lake Conroe Village community offers comfort, convenience, and an unbeatable location. The home features a functional layout with inviting living spaces and a cozy, welcoming feel throughout. The main living area provides a bright and comfortable space to relax or entertain, while the kitchen offers practicality for everyday use. Step outside and enjoy the peaceful surroundings in this growing Montgomery area neighborhood known for its laid-back, lakeside vibe and proximity to outdoor recreation. Residents love the easy access to Lake Conroe, nearby shopping, dining, and major roadways, making commuting and weekend adventures a breeze. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this affordable home offers a great blend of location and value in a desirable lake-area community.

Key facts

• Major roadways
• Nearby dining
• Nearby shopping

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO LAKE CONROE
• NEARBY SHOPPING
• NEARBY DINING
• MAJOR ROADWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.58%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,000
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 8.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $15,170
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $39,503
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,640/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $755

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $504	+0% $483	+5% $461	+10% $440
Rent	-10% $375	-5% $429	+0% $483	+5% $537	+10% $590
Rate	-1.0pp $520	-0.5pp $502	base $483	+0.5pp $463	+1.0pp $443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1406 April Villas Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	25d	1	0.82mi
1406 April Villas Unit C Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	717	$1,150	$1.60	25d	1	0.82mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 1103A Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	709	$1,210	$1.71	44d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-02-18
    listed $75,000 Active 903-char remark

    Show marketing remark (903 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in the Lake Conroe Village community offers comfort, convenience, and an unbeatable location. The home features a functional layout with inviting living spaces and a cozy, welcoming feel throughout. The main living area provides a bright and comfortable space to relax or entertain, while the kitchen offers practicality for everyday use. Step outside and enjoy the peaceful surroundings in this growing Montgomery area neighborhood known for its laid-back, lakeside vibe and proximity to outdoor recreation. Residents love the easy access to Lake Conroe, nearby shopping, dining, and major roadways, making commuting and weekend adventures a breeze. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment opportunity, this affordable home offers a great blend of location and value in a desirable lake-area community.

16. 2025-12-10
    historical $750
17. 2025-12-10
    historical
18. 2025-09-30
    price $80,000
19. 2025-08-09
    price $750
20. 2025-08-09
    price $800
21. 2025-08-08
    price $750
22. 2025-07-08
    listed $800
23. 2025-06-30
    historical $800
24. 2025-06-06
    listed $90,000 Active
25. 2025-05-23
    listed $800
26. 2025-05-23
    historical $850
27. 2024-12-07
    listed $850
28. 2015-10-14
    soldstatus
29. 2007-12-03
    historical
30. 2007-08-20
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,640
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,311
• − Management: −$1,311
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,187
• After-tax cash flow: $4,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Rental Removed $750 HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $750 HARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $800 HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $750 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $800 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $800 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed for Rent $800 HARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Rental Removed $850 HARMLS
• 2024-12-07 Listed for Rent $850 HARMLS
• 2015-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-12-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-08-20 Listed $15,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+32.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,640 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.