553 Lake Rd · Pine Plains, NY 12567

$639,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1985 3.70 ac lot Est $683k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Ranch Style Home Sited High On A Hilltop With Sweeping Views Of Stissing Lake. Main Level Offers Three Bedrooms, Living Room With Fireplace And A Year-Round Sun Room. Lower Level Is Also Finished Providing Plenty Of Additional Living Space Including A Summer Kitchen.

Key facts

• 3.7 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Heated garage; Total of 4 garage spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Other foundation details
• Exterior features: Other construction materials; Additional garage structures on the property; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Walk-through kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs; First floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Natural woodwork; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom; Master suite on main level; Walk-through kitchen; Washer/dryer hookup; Finished full basement with walk-out access; Crawl attic; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Generator on property

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $639k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (55.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (57.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (57.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#746 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Plains Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #372 of 755 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cold Spring Early Learning Center (165 students, 12% FRL); Stissing Mountain Junior/Senior High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 460 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+31 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pine Plains Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $68k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$110k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $237k; list at $639k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,417 (57.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.44%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 19.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $683,280
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Stissing Mountain Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (+4%)	9mo	$711,000	$438	60
4 Antlers Club Rd	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+4%)	9mo	$280,500	$173	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $220,239
• Equity at exit: $575,662

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $748,749
• Equity at exit: $1,241,436

Cash invested: $178,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12567

• Home prices YoY: 18.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 19.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,744 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax from tax record: −$555 /mo · $6,662/yr
• Insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-2,005

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,282

Max offer price $284,891

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,750
• Closing costs: $19,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Town Centre Rd Pine Plains, NY	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,742	$2.19	13d	5	0.79mi
32 Town Centre Rd Pine Plains, NY	2.0	2.0	1147	$2,660	$2.32	23d	1	0.79mi
59 Hillside Rd Pine Plains, NY	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,825	$2.48	23d	1	0.79mi
20 Town Centre Rd Pine Plains, NY	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,750	$2.20	43d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $639,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $639,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $639,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $639,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $639,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $639,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $639,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $639,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $639,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $639,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $639,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $639,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $639,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 687-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $639,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,662 · $555/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,731 · $728/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,068/yr (+$172/mo · 31.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,794
• − Property taxes: −$6,662
• − Insurance: −$3,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,634
• − Management: −$2,634
• − Depreciation: −$18,589
• Taxable loss: −$36,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,779
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Plains Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623040
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,189
• Composite: 48.33/100
• National rank: #4688
• State rank: #372 of 755 in NY

Livability — Pine Plains

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #746
• US rank: #14240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,498
• Population (ZIP): 2,498

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.77%
• Current HPI: 322.2342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+170.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Coming Soon $639,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-17 Sold (MLS) $236,700 HGMLS
• 2013-07-31 Price Changed $259,000 HGMLS
• 2013-07-31 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2011-11-22 Listed $236,700 HGMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,662 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.