4619 Thoroughbred Dr · East Milton, FL 32583

$165,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2020 1.14 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

COUNTRY LIVING AT ITS FINEST; Beautiful easy to maintain 3 bed room 2 bathroom home. You will love this amazing Home on a large but maintainable 1.14 acre lot. come see what this amazing comunity has to offer. You will not be disapointed see you soon

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.14 acres; Building area approximately 1,140 square feet; Directions: Hwy 87 to Nichols Lake Rd. Left on Farm Life, Right on S Trace Rd, Left on Thoroughbred Dr.; home on left
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Copper electrical wiring; County-maintained road access
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured or Modular home; One story; Resale property; Homestead exemption eligible
• Construction: Off grade foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Central access to the lot; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on the first floor; Additional bedroom(s) located on the first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl and simulated wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.6% in East Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.15%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $781
• Equity at exit: $24,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $43,970
• Equity at exit: $14,309

Cash invested: $46,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$868
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $457/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,234

Max offer price $165,500

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,375
• Closing costs: $4,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4825 Douglas Dr Milton, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	14d	1	0.57mi
4819 Douglas Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,100	$1.19	14d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,500 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,500 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,500 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $165,500 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 250-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $164,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $457 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,374 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$917/yr (+$76/mo · 200.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,271
• − Property taxes: −$457
• − Insurance: −$828
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$4,815
• Taxable income: $2,073
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $4,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Milton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3139

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Milton, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 31,415
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $164,900 PARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $160,500 PARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $169,000 PARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $169,500 PARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $171,000 PARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $172,900 PARMLS
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $174,000 PARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $174,900 PARMLS
• 2023-08-05 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2023-07-03 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-07-03 Price Changed $189,900 PARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2023-03-07 Listed $169,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $457 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.