16130 Aralia Dr · Cape Coral, FL 33955

$155,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1990 1.00 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your private acre in paradise awaits! This versatile home offers over 1,000 sq ft of living space with a layout designed for flexibility and future growth. Recent improvements include a 5-year-old roof on the main home and rear living areas, plus a metal roof (approx. 4 years old) over the Florida room and screened porch. The home features dual 12’ x 24’ living areas, an 18’ x 24’ kitchen, dining, and bath zone, and an enclosed patio that expands your living options. Plenty of space to roam, add on, or customize with low-down rehab financing available. Enjoy quiet country living just minutes from US-41, Charlotte Harbor, and nearby parks and wildlife areas.

Key facts

• Wildlife preserves
• Surrounded by parks
• Florida room

Tags

• ONE-ACRE OPPORTUNITY
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• FLORIDA ROOM
• QUICK ACCESS TO US-41
• SURROUNDED BY PARKS
• WILDLIFE PRESERVES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Zoning: AG; Homestead exempt; Living area reported as 432 sq ft (public records); total building area reported as 1002 sq ft (owner); Total rooms: 4; Furnished: Unfurnished; Directions: US 41 to Tangelo Rd turns into Aralia
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details listed
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Private sewer; No public water source listed
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Originally built (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot approximately 1 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry listed as: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1481 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.42%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-17,229
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,807
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33955

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 1481
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,153/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $155,000
17. 2026-03-28
    price $185,000
18. 2026-03-27
    status Active
19. 2026-03-17
    status Pending
20. 2026-01-30
    price $200,000
21. 2026-01-21
    price $189,000
22. 2026-01-21
    listed $184,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,153 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,153 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,153
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$254
• After-tax cash flow: $1,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,399
• Household income: $76,943
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 226.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.71%
• Current HPI: 242.9043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $184,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,153 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.