Progreso Plan · Richmond, TX 77406

$365,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,136 sqft · SingleFamily · 270 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 269 days

🏗️ New construction. The $365,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $428,583.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $366k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-988 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.8% in Richmond — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Joe Hubenak El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 1,214 students, 37% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1487 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($322k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,817 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.88%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,583
• List price: $365,990
• Delta: -14.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11103 Avery Oaks Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,202 (+3%)	1mo	$315,000	$143	67
10430 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,927 (-10%)	1mo	$399,990	$208	65
26711 Concord Dawn Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	1,927 (-10%)	2mo	$345,000	$179	65
10518 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,985 (-7%)	1mo	$404,990	$204	65
10422 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-12%)	1mo	$379,900	$202	64
26102 Herschel Heights Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (-6%)	2mo	$375,000	$187	64
10818 Cassiopeia Creek Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-11%)	2mo	$360,000	$190	62
11130 Overland Trail Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,213 (+4%)	1mo	$285,000	$129	61
26711 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.37mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+12%)	1mo	$471,900	$197	60
49 E Kitty Hawk St	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (+12%)	0mo	$975,000	$408	58
26714 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.44mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+12%)	2mo	$458,900	$192	56
11331 Elizabeth Brook Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,938 (-9%)	1mo	$304,900	$157	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-139,676
• Equity at exit: $63,903

10-year hold

• IRR: -76.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.92×
• Total profit: $-230,819
• Equity at exit: $37,056

Cash invested: $120,003 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 115 active · 53 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $420,000 ($189/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1487
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,498 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$536 /mo · $6,429/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-988

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,749

Max offer price $285,578

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-692	-5% $-840	+0% $-988	+5% $-1,136	+10% $-1,284
Rent	-10% $-1,186	-5% $-1,087	+0% $-988	+5% $-890	+10% $-791
Rate	-1.0pp $-772	-0.5pp $-879	base $-988	+0.5pp $-1,099	+1.0pp $-1,212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,146
• Closing costs: $12,857
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26831 Chandrila Vista CT Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	12d	1	0.01mi
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	93d	1	0.39mi
11319 Sandermeyer Dr Richmond, TX	5.0	4.0	2895	$2,246	$0.78	4d	1	0.81mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	93d	1	0.89mi
26122 Serenity Oaks Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2438	$2,236	$0.92	25d	1	0.97mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,900	$3.18	93d	1	1.39mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,325	$2.92	4d	1	1.39mi
26439 Richwood Oaks Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,050	$1.17	93d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $365,990 Active 270 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $365,990 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $365,990 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $365,990 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $365,990 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $365,990 Active 262 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $365,990 Active 260 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $365,990 Active 259 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $365,990 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $365,990 Active 255 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $365,990 Active 254 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $365,990 Active 253 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $365,990 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $365,990 Active 251 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $365,990 Active 248 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $365,990 Active 247 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $365,990 Active 246 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $365,990 Active 245 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $365,990 Active 244 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $365,990 Active 243 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $365,990 Active 242 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $365,990 Active 241 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $365,990 Active 240 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $365,990 Active 238 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $365,990 Active 237 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $365,990 Active 236 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $365,990 Active 235 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $365,990 Active 234 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $365,990 Active 233 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $365,990 Active 232 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $365,990 Active 231 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $365,990 Active 230 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $365,990 Active 229 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $365,990 Active 228 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $365,990 Active 227 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $365,990 Active 225 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $365,990 Active 223 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $365,990 Active 222 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $365,990 Active 219 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $365,990 Active 218 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $365,990 Active 217 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $365,990 Active 216 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $365,990 Active 214 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $365,990 Active 210 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $365,990 Active 209 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,990 Active 208 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $365,990 Active 205 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,990 Active 204 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,990 Active 203 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,990 Active 202 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,007
• − Property taxes: −$6,429
• − Insurance: −$2,143
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,398
• − Management: −$2,398
• − Depreciation: −$12,468
• Taxable loss: −$19,865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,768
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Progreso floorplan home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joe Hubenak El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 158,237
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

---

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $365,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $465,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Listed $424,990 Zillow