15812 Breeze Dr · Perry, FL 32348

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2005 1.01 ac lot $58/sqft · 33% below area Est $163k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is just minutes from Keaton Beach and the public boat ramp, and it includes a double wide mobile home, a 12 x 24 storage building, a workshop, a potting shed (or “she shed”), and a pond that just needs a little work to transform the front yard into a convenient family entertainment opportunity. The home needs some restoration work, or at this affordable price, just get a new one delivered and be ready to make some wonderful spring and summer memories. Spend the days scalloping, fishing, boating, or just enjoying the beach, and relax under the stars at night.

Key facts

• Pond
• Storage building
• Public boat ramp

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• STORAGE BUILDING
• WORKSHOP
• POTTING SHED
• POND
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.6% in Perry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#420 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Taylor (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #59 of 73 in FL (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $110k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.40%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,252
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -32.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,045
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $31,557
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32348

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,900 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $109,900 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    This property is just minutes from Keaton Beach and the public boat ramp, and it includes a double wide mobile home, a 12 x 24 storage building, a workshop, a potting shed (or “she shed”), and a pond that just needs a little work to transform the front yard into a convenient family entertainment opportunity. The home needs some restoration work, or at this affordable price, just get a new one delivered and be ready to make some wonderful spring and summer memories. Spend the days scalloping, fishing, boating, or just enjoying the beach, and relax under the stars at night.

16. 2026-03-27
    price $119,900 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    This property is just minutes from Keaton Beach and the public boat ramp, and it includes a double wide mobile home, a 12 x 24 storage building, a workshop, a potting shed (or “she shed”), and a pond that just needs a little work to transform the front yard into a convenient family entertainment opportunity. The home needs some restoration work, or at this affordable price, just get a new one delivered and be ready to make some wonderful spring and summer memories. Spend the days scalloping, fishing, boating, or just enjoying the beach, and relax under the stars at night.

17. 2026-02-11
    price $129,900 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    This property is just minutes from Keaton Beach and the public boat ramp, and it includes a double wide mobile home, a 12 x 24 storage building, a workshop, a potting shed (or “she shed”), and a pond that just needs a little work to transform the front yard into a convenient family entertainment opportunity. The home needs some restoration work, or at this affordable price, just get a new one delivered and be ready to make some wonderful spring and summer memories. Spend the days scalloping, fishing, boating, or just enjoying the beach, and relax under the stars at night.

18. 2026-01-14
    listed $139,900 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    This property is just minutes from Keaton Beach and the public boat ramp, and it includes a double wide mobile home, a 12 x 24 storage building, a workshop, a potting shed (or “she shed”), and a pond that just needs a little work to transform the front yard into a convenient family entertainment opportunity. The home needs some restoration work, or at this affordable price, just get a new one delivered and be ready to make some wonderful spring and summer memories. Spend the days scalloping, fishing, boating, or just enjoying the beach, and relax under the stars at night.

19. 2020-11-10
    soldstatus $50,000
20. 2014-07-21
    historical
21. 2014-01-21
    listed $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$380/yr (+$32/mo · 71.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $2,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$589
• After-tax cash flow: $3,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taylor
• NCES district ID: 1201860
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,539
• Composite: 35.71/100
• National rank: #4862
• State rank: #59 of 73 in FL

Livability — Perry

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #7497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,498

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,562 people
• By 2030: 20,985 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 19,823 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 18,628 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 15,609 · -27.6%
• By 2100: 11,338 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.6) · D 19.9% · R 79.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.0pp · 2024: -59.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.6 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+38.3 2008: R+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.85%
• Current HPI: 159.8178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+61.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $109,900 NFMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $119,900 NFMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $129,900 NFMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $139,900 NFMLS
• 2020-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-21 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2014-01-21 Listed $68,000 CATRS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $532 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.