Plan 2429 Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$252,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,429 sqft · SingleFamily · 180 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Expansive primary suite * Granite kitchen countertops * Gas range * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Game room * Low-E windows * Front porch * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Den * Extra storage space * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Master-planned community * Near top-rated schools * Planned pickleball court * Planned parks * Planned playground

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Front porch
• Game room

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• GAME ROOM
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• FRONT PORCH

🏗️ New construction. The $252,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $303,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-645 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.7% in Barrett — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1723 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,689 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.16%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,990
• List price: $252,995
• Delta: -16.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12931 Carla Scanlan Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,334 (-4%)	2mo	$284,990	$122	78
1519 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,334 (-4%)	2mo	$282,990	$121	76
1339 Sea Oats Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-11%)	4mo	$316,990	$147	67
1530 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,198 (-10%)	9mo	$298,280	$136	62
1322 Bonnerjee Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-11%)	7mo	$318,990	$148	62
1543 Chimney Springs Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-11%)	2mo	$284,991	$132	61
1222 Garrett Sudhendrio Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-11%)	7mo	$314,990	$146	58
1219 Bonnerjee Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-11%)	6mo	$316,990	$147	58
1519 Brenda Jean Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,198 (-10%)	12mo	$279,220	$127	57
1239 Bonnerjee Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-11%)	10mo	$316,990	$147	56
1210 Garrett Sudhendrio Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-11%)	12mo	$316,990	$147	54
1331 Garrett Sudhendrio Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (-11%)	13mo	$314,990	$146	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-93,174
• Equity at exit: $45,326

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-145,304
• Equity at exit: $26,283

Cash invested: $85,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $259,990 ($128/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1723
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,560/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,743

Max offer price $210,654

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-435	-5% $-540	+0% $-645	+5% $-750	+10% $-855
Rent	-10% $-797	-5% $-721	+0% $-645	+5% $-569	+10% $-493
Rate	-1.0pp $-492	-0.5pp $-568	base $-645	+0.5pp $-724	+1.0pp $-804

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,998
• Closing costs: $9,120
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13702 Sun Bear Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1899	$1,899	$1.00	39d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $252,995 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $252,995 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $252,995 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $252,995 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $252,995 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $252,995 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $252,995 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $252,995 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $252,995 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $252,995 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $252,995 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $252,995 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $252,995 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $252,995 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $252,995 Active 161 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $252,995 Active 159 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $252,995 Active 157 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $252,995 Active 155 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    price $252,995 Active 154 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $262,995 Active 154 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $262,995 Active 153 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $262,995 Active 151 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $262,995 Active 150 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $262,995 Active 149 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $262,995 Active 148 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $262,995 Active 147 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $262,995 Active 146 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $262,995 Active 145 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $262,995 Active 144 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $262,995 Active 143 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $262,995 Active 142 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $262,995 Active 141 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $262,995 Active 140 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $262,995 Active 139 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $262,995 Active 138 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $262,995 Active 137 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $262,995 Active 136 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $262,995 Active 135 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $262,995 Active 134 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $262,995 Active 132 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $262,995 Active 131 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $262,995 Active 130 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $262,995 Active 129 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $262,995 Active 126 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $262,995 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $262,995 Active 124 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $262,995 Active 123 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $262,995 Active 121 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $262,995 Active 119 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $262,995 Active 118 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,028
• − Property taxes: −$4,560
• − Insurance: −$2,317
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$8,843
• Taxable loss: −$13,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,198
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,145–$36,435 screening

This home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $269,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $279,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Listed $287,995 Zillow