Silas Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$521,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,986 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This elegant 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home boasts an open floor plan with a spacious living area, perfect for gatherings. The gourmet kitchen and dedicated study blend style and functionality. Enjoy a luxurious primary suite with a Texas-sized walk-in closet, while a separate Suite Retreat offers its own private sanctuary. Outside, a generous outdoor living space is ideal for entertaining or relaxation.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Primary suite
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• DEDICATED STUDY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• TEXAS-SIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• SEPARATE SUITE RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $541,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (Silas)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2986; Built as part of a 2026 plan
• Exterior features: Property located at 112 Grace Ave, Castroville, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Silas)

🏗️ New construction. The $521,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $655,459.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $522k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $522k).
• Recommended offer: $506k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.7% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($506k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $506,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $655,459
• List price: $521,990
• Delta: -20.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Poe Pkwy	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,849 (-5%)	4mo	$599,900	$211	70
936 County Road 375	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,023 (+1%)	1mo	$768,000	$254	69
235 Poe	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,101 (+4%)	5mo	$599,900	$193	67
280 Sittre Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,003 (+1%)	4mo	$545,000	$181	66
117 Poe Pkwy	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-7%)	8mo	$599,990	$216	65
267 Sweet Rose	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+4%)	1mo	$549,000	$177	60
250 Matthew Path	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,325 (+11%)	1mo	$699,900	$210	58
172 Landon Path	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,730 (-9%)	6mo	$519,990	$190	58
229 Raven Rd	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (+2%)	6mo	$761,174	$250	57
237 Bryant Park	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-7%)	8mo	$569,990	$205	56
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,613 (-12%)	0mo	$625,000	$239	55
239 Sittre Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	3,324 (+11%)	0mo	$635,000	$191	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-94,956
• Equity at exit: $97,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-67,942
• Equity at exit: $56,672

Cash invested: $183,529 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,437
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$819 /mo · $9,832/yr
• Insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,251
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,734

Max offer price $655,459

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $163,865
• Closing costs: $19,664
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	4d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	43d	1	0.88mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	44d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $521,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $521,990 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $521,990 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $541,990 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $541,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $541,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $541,990 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $541,990 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $541,990 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $541,990 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $541,990 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $541,990 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $541,990 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $541,990 Active 405-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,716
• − Property taxes: −$9,832
• − Insurance: −$3,277
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,718
• − Management: −$5,718
• − Depreciation: −$19,068
• Taxable loss: −$8,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,126
• After-tax cash flow: $4,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home with 4 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and trimming the landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B