Silas Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$544,800

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,982 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This elegant 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home boasts an open floor plan with a spacious living area, perfect for gatherings. The gourmet kitchen and dedicated study blend style and functionality. Enjoy a luxurious primary suite with a Texas-sized walk-in closet, while a separate Suite Retreat offers its own private sanctuary. Outside, a generous outdoor living space is ideal for entertaining or relaxation.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Primary suite
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• DEDICATED STUDY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• TEXAS-SIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• SEPARATE SUITE RETREAT

🏗️ New construction. The $544,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $655,994.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $545k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $545k).
• Recommended offer: $512k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 525 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,476/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($512k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $512,112 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $655,994
• List price: $544,800
• Delta: -16.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Poe Pkwy	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,849 (-4%)	6mo	$599,900	$211	69
936 County Road 375	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,023 (+1%)	3mo	$768,000	$254	67
235 Poe	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,101 (+4%)	7mo	$599,900	$193	66
280 Sittre Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,003 (+1%)	6mo	$545,000	$181	64
117 Poe Pkwy	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-7%)	10mo	$599,990	$216	64
267 Sweet Rose	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+4%)	3mo	$549,000	$177	59
250 Matthew Path	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,325 (+12%)	3mo	$699,900	$210	56
172 Landon Path	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,730 (-8%)	8mo	$519,990	$190	56
229 Raven Rd	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (+2%)	7mo	$761,174	$250	55
237 Bryant Park	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-7%)	10mo	$569,990	$205	55
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,613 (-12%)	2mo	$625,000	$239	54
239 Sittre Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	3,324 (+12%)	2mo	$635,000	$191	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-119,438
• Equity at exit: $97,811

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-120,694
• Equity at exit: $56,718

Cash invested: $183,678 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 64 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $592,900 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 28% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 525
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,440
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$820 /mo · $9,840/yr
• Insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,150
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,739

Max offer price $625,955

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $19	+0% $-208	+5% $-434	+10% $-661
Rent	-10% $-640	-5% $-424	+0% $-208	+5% $9	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $-41	base $-208	+0.5pp $-378	+1.0pp $-551

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $163,998
• Closing costs: $19,680
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	53d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	93d	1	0.88mi
169 Sage Sparrow San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2539	$2,150	$0.85	21d	1	1.28mi
162 Owl Burrow San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2223	$2,300	$1.03	18d	1	1.29mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	93d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	53d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $541,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (Silas)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2986Built as part of a 2026 plan
• Exterior features: Property located at 112 Grace Ave, Castroville, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Silas)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $544,800 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $544,800 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $544,800 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $544,800 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $544,800 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $544,800 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $544,800 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $544,800 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $544,800 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $544,800 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $544,800 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $544,800 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $544,800 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $544,800 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $544,800 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $544,800 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $544,800 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $544,800 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $544,800 Active 60 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $544,800 Active 59 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $544,800 Active 58 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $544,800 Active 57 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $544,800 Active 56 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $544,800 Active 55 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $544,800 Active 53 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $544,800 Active 52 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $544,800 Active 51 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    price $544,800 Active 49 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $521,990 Active 49 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $521,990 Active 48 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $521,990 Active 47 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $521,990 Active 46 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $521,990 Active 45 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $521,990 Active 44 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $521,990 Active 43 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $521,990 Active 42 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $521,990 Active 40 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $521,990 Active 38 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $521,990 Active 37 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $521,990 Active 34 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $521,990 Active 33 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $521,990 Active 32 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $541,990 Active 31 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $541,990 Active 29 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $541,990 Active 25 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $541,990 Active 24 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $541,990 Active 23 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $541,990 Active 20 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $541,990 Active 19 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $541,990 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,746
• − Property taxes: −$9,840
• − Insurance: −$3,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,257
• − Management: −$5,257
• − Depreciation: −$19,083
• Taxable loss: −$13,754
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,301
• After-tax cash flow: $810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,910–$44,730 screening

This well-maintained single-family home with 4 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and trimming the landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Potranco El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Medina Valley Loma Alta Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Medina Valley H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Medina · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,494
• Household income: $102,724
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $541,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (Silas)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2986Built as part of a 2026 plan
• Exterior features: Property located at 112 Grace Ave, Castroville, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Silas)