Silas Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$529,800

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,982 sqft · SingleFamily · 108 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This elegant 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home boasts an open floor plan with a spacious living area, perfect for gatherings. The gourmet kitchen and dedicated study blend style and functionality. Enjoy a luxurious primary suite with a Texas-sized walk-in closet, while a separate Suite Retreat offers its own private sanctuary. Outside, a generous outdoor living space is ideal for entertaining or relaxation.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Primary suite
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• DEDICATED STUDY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• TEXAS-SIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• SEPARATE SUITE RETREAT

🏗️ New construction. The $529,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $623,884.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $530k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $525k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $482k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.6% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 623 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,250/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($482k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $482,118 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $623,884
• List price: $529,800
• Delta: -15.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Poe Pkwy	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,849 (-4%)	8mo	$599,900	$211	68
936 County Road 375	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,023 (+1%)	4mo	$768,000	$254	66
235 Poe	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,101 (+4%)	8mo	$599,900	$193	65
280 Sittre Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,003 (+1%)	8mo	$545,000	$181	63
117 Poe Pkwy	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-7%)	11mo	$599,990	$216	63
267 Sweet Rose	0.71mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+4%)	4mo	$549,000	$177	57
250 Matthew Path	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,325 (+12%)	4mo	$699,900	$210	55
172 Landon Path	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,730 (-8%)	10mo	$519,990	$190	55
229 Raven Rd	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (+2%)	9mo	$761,174	$250	54
237 Bryant Park	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-7%)	11mo	$569,990	$205	54
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,613 (-12%)	3mo	$625,000	$239	52
239 Sittre Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	3,324 (+12%)	3mo	$635,000	$191	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-111,482
• Equity at exit: $93,023

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-110,230
• Equity at exit: $53,942

Cash invested: $174,688 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 80 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.9 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $581,945 ($200/sqft)
• Median days on market: 132 d
• This list price: 28% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 623
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,272
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$780 /mo · $9,358/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,102
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,458

Max offer price $600,109

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $51	+0% $-164	+5% $-380	+10% $-595
Rent	-10% $-579	-5% $-372	+0% $-164	+5% $43	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $-6	base $-164	+0.5pp $-326	+1.0pp $-490

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $155,971
• Closing costs: $18,717
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$5,500	$1.37	29d	1	0.12mi
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	100d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	139d	1	0.88mi
169 Sage Sparrow San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2539	$2,150	$0.85	67d	1	1.28mi
162 Owl Burrow San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2223	$2,100	$0.94	0d	1	1.29mi
208 Wild Duck San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,300	$0.97	2d	1	1.32mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	140d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	100d	1	1.45mi
102 Nesting Tree San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	2354	$1,800	$0.76	40d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $541,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (Silas)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2986Built as part of a 2026 plan
• Exterior features: Property located at 112 Grace Ave, Castroville, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Silas)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-31
   days on market $529,800 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-08-30
   days on market $529,800 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-08-29
   days on market $529,800 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-08-28
   price $529,800 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-08-28
   days on market $544,800 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-08-27
   days on market $544,800 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-08-25
   days on market $544,800 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-08-24
   days on market $544,800 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-08-23
   days on market $544,800 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-08-22
    days on market $544,800 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-08-21
    days on market $544,800 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-08-20
    days on market $544,800 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-08-19
    days on market $544,800 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-08-18
    days on market $544,800 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-08-17
    days on market $544,800 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-08-16
    days on market $544,800 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-08-15
    days on market $544,800 Active 92 DOM
18. 2026-08-14
    days on market $544,800 Active 91 DOM
19. 2026-08-13
    days on market $544,800 Active 90 DOM
20. 2026-08-12
    days on market $544,800 Active 89 DOM
21. 2026-08-11
    days on market $544,800 Active 88 DOM
22. 2026-08-10
    days on market $544,800 Active 87 DOM
23. 2026-08-09
    days on market $544,800 Active 86 DOM
24. 2026-08-08
    days on market $544,800 Active 85 DOM
25. 2026-08-06
    days on market $544,800 Active 83 DOM
26. 2026-08-05
    days on market $544,800 Active 82 DOM
27. 2026-08-04
    days on market $544,800 Active 81 DOM
28. 2026-08-03
    days on market $544,800 Active 80 DOM
29. 2026-07-31
    days on market $544,800 Active 77 DOM
30. 2026-07-30
    days on market $544,800 Active 75 DOM
31. 2026-07-28
    days on market $544,800 Active 74 DOM
32. 2026-07-26
    days on market $544,800 Active 72 DOM
33. 2026-07-24
    days on market $544,800 Active 70 DOM
34. 2026-07-23
    days on market $544,800 Active 69 DOM
35. 2026-07-22
    days on market $544,800 Active 68 DOM
36. 2026-07-21
    days on market $544,800 Active 67 DOM
37. 2026-07-20
    days on market $544,800 Active 66 DOM
38. 2026-07-18
    days on market $544,800 Active 64 DOM
39. 2026-07-18
    days on market $544,800 Active 63 DOM
40. 2026-07-16
    days on market $544,800 Active 62 DOM
41. 2026-07-15
    days on market $544,800 Active 61 DOM
42. 2026-07-14
    days on market $544,800 Active 60 DOM
43. 2026-07-13
    days on market $544,800 Active 59 DOM
44. 2026-07-13
    days on market $544,800 Active 58 DOM
45. 2026-07-11
    days on market $544,800 Active 57 DOM
46. 2026-07-10
    days on market $544,800 Active 56 DOM
47. 2026-07-10
    days on market $544,800 Active 55 DOM
48. 2026-07-07
    days on market $544,800 Active 53 DOM
49. 2026-07-06
    days on market $544,800 Active 52 DOM
50. 2026-07-05
    days on market $544,800 Active 51 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,947
• − Property taxes: −$9,358
• − Insurance: −$3,119
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,040
• − Management: −$5,040
• − Depreciation: −$18,149
• Taxable loss: −$12,658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,038
• After-tax cash flow: $1,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,910–$44,730 screening

This well-maintained single-family home with 4 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and trimming the landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Potranco El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Medina Valley Loma Alta Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Medina Valley H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Medina · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,494
• Household income: $102,724
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $541,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (Silas)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2986Built as part of a 2026 plan
• Exterior features: Property located at 112 Grace Ave, Castroville, TX

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan: Silas)