3697 Madbury Cir · Lakeland, FL 33810

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2010 5,705 sqft lot $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Hampton Hills community of North Lakeland. Offering a spacious and functional layout, this home is designed for both comfortable everyday living and effortless entertaining. The open-concept floor plan features generous living and dining spaces that flow seamlessly into the kitchen, creating the perfect gathering place for family and friends. The split-bedroom design provides added privacy, with a spacious primary suite offering a relaxing retreat at the end of the day. The additional bedrooms are well-sized and versatile, making them ideal for family members, guests, a home office, or hobby space. Step outside to enjoy the scr

Key facts

• Screened lanai
• Backyard
• Nearby lakes

Tags

• HAMPTON HILLS COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SCREENED LANAI
• BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-4
• NEARBY LAKES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-584/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $223,042 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,018
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,989
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,292

Max offer price $242,960

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3852 Hampton Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1861	$1,950	$1.05	10d	1	0.21mi
1845 Holton Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	1811	$1,983	$1.09	21d	1	0.30mi
3697 Hampton Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1746	$2,150	$1.23	23d	1	0.42mi
1906 Griffin Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1148	$2,339	$2.04	3d	11	0.44mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	14d	1	0.53mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	13d	1	0.54mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	2d	1	0.57mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	3d	1	0.58mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	14d	1	0.60mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	23d	1	0.70mi
1754 Altavista Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2082	$2,450	$1.18	13d	1	0.79mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,700	$1.57	13d	2	0.93mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,992	$2.00	2d	24	0.95mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,833	$1.73	23d	1	1.06mi
3987 Sunset Lake Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$4,500	$2.02	14d	1	1.10mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,699	$1.59	21d	8	1.15mi
1211 Robert King High Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,625	$1.55	23d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B