4481 Winchester Hills Way · Clay, AL 35215

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,163 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2014 9,147 sqft lot Est $171k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence in Winchester Hills. Fresh interior paint and a recently serviced HVAC system provide added peace of mind. This home offers a functional layout, comfortable living spaces, and a low-maintenance yard. Enjoy relaxing or entertaining on the rear patio overlooking a backyard framed by mature pine trees and natural greenery, creating a peaceful outdoor setting. Conveniently located just minutes from Publix, shopping, dining, and I-59, this home offers easy access to Birmingham and surrounding areas while maintaining a neighborhood feel. Priced to provide an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking value and the ability to add their own pe

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Rear patio
• 9,147 sq ft lot

Tags

• RECENTLY SERVICED HVAC SYSTEM
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• REAR PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.21 acres; Located in the Winchester Hills subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking; Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Electric water heater; Underground utilities; Internet available (Spectrum)
• Home design: Existing (previously built) home; 1-side brick and vinyl siding construction; Slab foundation; Not waterfront; No pool
• Construction: 1-side brick with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Open patio; Porch; Garden/Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate and solid-surface countertops; Electric cooktop; Built-in dishwasher; Built-in freezer and ice maker; Electric oven (self-cleaning); Refrigerator; Some stainless appliances
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Tub/shower combo; Linen closet
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Trey ceilings; Split bedroom floor plan; Pull-down attic; Living area reported as 1,163 (per tax report)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on main level; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Clay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AL, #3,849 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chalkville Elementary School (math 6% / reading 16%, grade F, #560 of 627 statewide, top 90%, 854 students, 79% FRL); Claychalkville Middle School (math 2% / reading 26%, grade F, #209 of 257 statewide, top 82%, 1,032 students, 64% FRL); Claychalkville High School (math 6% / reading 9%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 1,361 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 336 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,722 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,961
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4488 Winchester Hills Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,165 (+0%)	10mo	$225,000	$193	90
1117 Oak Creek Trl NE	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,226 (+5%)	11mo	$162,500	$133	73
4445 Winchester Hills Way	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,330 (+14%)	9mo	$195,000	$147	59
5370 Tyler Loop Rd	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,125 (-3%)	8mo	$146,000	$130	57
4956 Kerri Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+12%)	2mo	$219,267	$169	57
2835 Creek Ln NE	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-7%)	4mo	$104,900	$97	56
5150 Amberwood Ln	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,128 (-3%)	2mo	$155,000	$137	55
5135 Amberwood Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,135 (-2%)	11mo	$162,000	$143	54
4961 Kerri Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+12%)	10mo	$247,900	$190	48
5290 Baggett Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,278 (+10%)	5mo	$170,000	$133	46
4989 Kerri Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+12%)	12mo	$249,900	$192	45
5079 Darlene Dr	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,296 (+11%)	3mo	$198,000	$153	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,428
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,088
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,006/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $221	+0% $172	+5% $122	+10% $72
Rent	-10% $47	-5% $109	+0% $172	+5% $234	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $216	base $172	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4464 Winchester Hills Way Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,750	$1.49	45d	1	0.08mi
4464 Winchester Hills Ln Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	13d	1	0.08mi
1104 Oak Creek Trl NE Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,543	$1.25	3d	1	0.30mi
5764 Desoto Dr Pinson, AL	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,225	$1.11	3d	1	0.73mi
2708 7th St NE Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1451	$1,150	$0.79	45d	1	0.86mi
2415 Ormond Dr Center Point, AL	3.0	1.5	1194	$1,295	$1.08	45d	1	0.91mi
2504 Beechwood Trl Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,435	$1.06	23d	1	0.93mi
5944 Tyler Loop Rd Pinson, AL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,485	$1.19	25d	1	1.03mi
3309 Chase Ln Unit 3309 Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,000	$0.94	45d	1	1.11mi
4246 Centerwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,450	$1.09	17d	1	1.12mi
3073 Panorama E Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,275	$1.31	3d	20	1.16mi
2537 3rd St NE Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,350	$1.30	25d	1	1.19mi
2629 Wood Dr NE Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1203	$1,250	$1.04	45d	1	1.26mi
149 Martin Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,485	$1.28	25d	1	1.28mi
2249 4th Place Cir NE Center Point, AL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	1.43mi
2561 Gaylon St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1318	$1,345	$1.02	23d	1	1.46mi
332 23rd Ave NE Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	4d	1	1.46mi
2358 Grayson Valley Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	3.0	1320	$1,503	$1.14	13d	1	1.47mi
2350 Grayson Valley Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.5	1380	$1,595	$1.16	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,006 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,006 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,006
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$210
• After-tax cash flow: $2,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Clay

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clay, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-77.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Listed $175,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2013-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $768,839 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,006 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.