404 Forsythe St · Carthage, TX 75633

$105,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 286 Days on market

Built 1958 0.41 ac lot $85/sqft · 41% below area Est $180k · 41% under ↓ 27% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Purchased home about 10 years ago do not know age of roof, guessing around 15 years

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $106k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $106k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#258 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Carthage ISD (town): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #364 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $732 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Panola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,192 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.31%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,859
• List price: $105,900
• Delta: -41.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-8,763
• Equity at exit: $15,790

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,298
• Equity at exit: $9,156

Cash invested: $29,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75633

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,143 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$555
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,069/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $105,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,475
• Closing costs: $3,177
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,900 Active 286 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,900 Active 285 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,900 Active 284 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,900 Active 283 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,900 Active 281 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,900 Active 280 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,900 Active 277 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,900 Active 276 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,900 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,900 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,900 Active 271 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,900 Active 270 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,900 Active 269 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,900 Active 268 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    price $105,900 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Purchased home about 10 years ago do not know age of roof, guessing around 15 years

16. 2026-02-27
    price $120,900 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Purchased home about 10 years ago do not know age of roof, guessing around 15 years

17. 2025-12-09
    price $125,000 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Purchased home about 10 years ago do not know age of roof, guessing around 15 years

18. 2025-11-03
    price $129,900 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Purchased home about 10 years ago do not know age of roof, guessing around 15 years

19. 2025-09-19
    price $139,500 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Purchased home about 10 years ago do not know age of roof, guessing around 15 years

20. 2025-09-05
    listed $145,900 Active 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Purchased home about 10 years ago do not know age of roof, guessing around 15 years

21. 2019-01-11
    soldstatus
22. 2019-01-03
    soldstatus
23. 2018-02-13
    soldstatus
24. 2012-10-25
    soldstatus
25. 2010-08-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,069 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,069 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,932
• − Property taxes: −$2,069
• − Insurance: −$530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$3,081
• Taxable loss: −$88
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21
• After-tax cash flow: $1,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,546
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4997
• State rank: #364 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #6081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,999

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,273 people
• By 2030: 22,845 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 21,652 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 20,107 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 15,709 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 11,013 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.7% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -48.9pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+56.1 2008: R+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.73%
• Current HPI: 162.0275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $105,900 LAAR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $120,900 LAAR
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $125,000 LAAR
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $129,900 LAAR
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $139,500 LAAR
• 2025-09-05 Listed $145,900 LAAR
• 2019-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,069 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.