2312 SE Surrey Pl · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$259,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $264k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bed 2 bath, garage converted to a bedroom with full closet, large shed with electric in backyard for storage/workshop, fully updated/remodeled kitchen in 2017 with solid wood cabinets, new tile in kitchen and guest bath, master bedroom is tiled with a bathroom, new a/c in 2022 with 10 year warranty, guest bath remodeled in 2016 with new solid wood vanity and Italian tile, neutral colors throughout, photos will be posted soon.

Key facts

• Guest bath remodeled
• New a/c
• Built 1999

Tags

• GARAGE CONVERTED TO A BEDROOM
• LARGE SHED WITH ELECTRIC
• FULLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• GUEST BATH REMODELED
• NEW A/C

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 645 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $260k implies a 513% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,591 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,588
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2561 SE Charleston Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,014 (+5%)	4mo	$246,000	$243	68
2214 Trillo St	0.45mi	2/1.5	912 (-5%)	19mo	$250,000	$274	52
2157 SE Genoa St	0.55mi	2/1.0	900 (-6%)	23mo	$310,000	$344	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-38,832
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-36,051
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 645
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $162	+0% $89	+5% $15	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $6	+0% $89	+5% $172	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $220	-0.5pp $155	base $89	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2289 SE Seamist St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,500	$2.48	25d	1	0.50mi
1790 SE North Buttonwood Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	962	$2,275	$2.36	15d	1	0.81mi
2416 SE Garden Ter #203 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	861	$1,700	$1.97	25d	1	0.82mi
2444 SE Garden Ter Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	861	$1,950	$2.26	15d	1	0.85mi
4041 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,000	$1.93	25d	1	1.21mi
4116 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,100	$2.03	15d	1	1.38mi
3904 NW Cinnamon Tree Cir Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,000	$1.93	25d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 1995-08-09
   soldstatus $42,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,157 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$913/yr (+$76/mo · 73.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$3,436
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$825
• After-tax cash flow: $1,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 1995-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $42,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,244 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.