18473 Thoroughbred Dr · Vance, AL 35490

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,141 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2007 10,454 sqft lot $158/sqft · 12% below area Est $205k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore this investment opportunity in Vance, only minutes from the Mercedes Benz International Facility. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers desirable single-level living and a functional open floor plan. Currently occupied by a reliable, long-term tenant, this property provides immediate cash flow. Located on a spacious lot in Bridle Brook, this home is just minutes from the I-20 corridor, offering a quick commute MBUSI, Brose Tuscaloosa, Ard Logistics, and only a slightly longer commute to Tuscaloosa or Birmingham/McCalla. Whether you are looking to expand your rental portfolio or secure a future residence, this turnkey home delivers both stability and appreciation potential. Home is tenanted until APRIL 2027 - minimum 48 hour notice for all showings.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious lot
• Quick commute

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LOT
• QUICK COMMUTE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.6% in Vance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,325
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -12.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18412 Arabian Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,137 (-0%)	1mo	$226,500	$199	93
18393 Arabian Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,060 (-7%)	6mo	$189,000	$178	76
18480 Thoroughbred Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,117 (-2%)	19mo	$197,500	$177	74
18455 Thoroughbred Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+13%)	16mo	$188,000	$145	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $110,479
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $315,392
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,069/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,403

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-01-20
    listed $180,000 Active 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Explore this investment opportunity in Vance, only minutes from the Mercedes Benz International Facility. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers desirable single-level living and a functional open floor plan. Currently occupied by a reliable, long-term tenant, this property provides immediate cash flow. Located on a spacious lot in Bridle Brook, this home is just minutes from the I-20 corridor, offering a quick commute MBUSI, Brose Tuscaloosa, Ard Logistics, and only a slightly longer commute to Tuscaloosa or Birmingham/McCalla. Whether you are looking to expand your rental portfolio or secure a future residence, this turnkey home delivers both stability and appreciation potential. Home is tenanted until APRIL 2027 - minimum 48 hour notice for all showings.

18. 2025-03-15
    historical $1,325
19. 2025-02-18
    listed $1,325
20. 2022-06-25
    price $1,150

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,069
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$155
• After-tax cash flow: $2,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+15552.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listed $180,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-03-15 Rental Removed $1,325 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-18 Listed for Rent $1,325 APPFOLIO
• 2022-06-25 Price Changed $1,150 RENT.

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,069 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.