3021 Mohawk St · Middletown, OH 45044

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1948 8,494 sqft lot Est $179k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom ranch in Middletown. New paint, new flooring, new HVAC, newer ss appliances, and a large outbuilding with electric. Enjoy the backyard while entertaining guests around the firepit. Don't miss out on seeing this gem!

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Large backyard
• Detached outbuilding

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• RECENT UPDATES
• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DETACHED OUTBUILDING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Connected to central air and forced-air heating
• Home design: Single-story vinyl-sided home
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Residential lot (approx. 0.195 acres / 8,494 sq ft); Lot dimensions recorded; lot size from assessor

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen (approx. 16 x 14)
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (approx. 10 x 11, 11 x 11, 11 x 12)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (approx. 10 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $987 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 4.5% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.43%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1709 Oxford State Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,208 (-4%)	5mo	$165,000	$137	72
3020 Seneca St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-1%)	12mo	$99,900	$80	71
3221 Yankee Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,411 (+12%)	1mo	$202,500	$144	66
3203 Finley St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,169 (-7%)	14mo	$180,000	$154	65
3106 Rufus St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,164 (-8%)	2mo	$164,900	$142	64
2804 Yankee Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,106 (-12%)	7mo	$72,000	$65	61
1717 Glenwood Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-9%)	10mo	$147,500	$129	59
3209 Rufus St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,081 (-14%)	3mo	$155,000	$143	53
1403 Hood Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+7%)	16mo	$191,000	$142	48
1412 Bernice St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,093 (-13%)	10mo	$165,000	$151	45
1401 Hood Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+14%)	4mo	$170,500	$118	41
3003 Judy Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-14%)	4mo	$184,000	$170	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $48,692
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $160,054
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45044

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,701/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $987

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,175

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,066	-5% $1,026	+0% $987	+5% $948	+10% $908
Rent	-10% $795	-5% $891	+0% $987	+5% $1,083	+10% $1,178
Rate	-1.0pp $1,057	-0.5pp $1,022	base $987	+0.5pp $951	+1.0pp $914

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1419 Oxford State Rd Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$2,495	$2.77	2d	1	0.55mi
2000 Pearl St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$3,500	$3.89	2d	4	0.88mi
1804 Brentwood St Middletown, OH	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,430	$1.37	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $139,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $145,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$234/yr (+$19/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,701
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,328
• − Management: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $10,215
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,452
• After-tax cash flow: $9,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City
• NCES district ID: 3904440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,650
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8605
• State rank: #610 of 656 in OH

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6338

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, OH
• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 96,117
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 56,217
• Household income: $73,732
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.07%
• Current HPI: 219.0479
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+421.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $145,000 Dayton MLS
• 2021-04-23 Sold (MLS) $94,900 Cincy MLS
• 2021-02-10 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2021-01-28 Price Changed $99,900 Cincy MLS
• 2020-11-24 Listed $105,000 Cincy MLS
• 2008-07-25 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2007-11-13 Listed $70,000 Cincy MLS
• 1988-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1981-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,701 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.