5764 W Lazy St S · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$90,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1969 3,790 sqft lot $151/sqft · at area comps Est $98k · 8% under $208/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice home with bedrooms in the front and back and living room and kitchen in the middle. Three mini-splits heat and cool this home. Guest bedroom in the front has a half bath. Nice screened patio on the west side. Luxury vinyl wood look planking in much of the home. Closet has been removed from the primary bedroom. Roof recently coated and in good shape. The HOA fee in this 55+ community includes unlimited golf, tennis, pickle ball, shuffleboard, pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and much more. You own the land!

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Mini-splits
• Exercise room

Tags

• SCREENED PATIO
• MINI-SPLITS
• COATED ROOF
• EXERCISE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $626 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $90k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.52%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,100
• List price: $90,500
• Delta: -7.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5780 W Lazy St S	0.02mi	2/2.0	600 (0%)	4mo	$155,000	$258	94
6012 W Bar X St	0.26mi	2/1.5	600 (0%)	3mo	$89,900	$150	85
5772 W Lazy St S	0.01mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (+4%)	3mo	$100,000	$160	84
5716 W Bar X St	0.12mi	2/1.0	550 (-8%)	9mo	$68,000	$124	71
5828 W Rocking Circle St	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (+12%)	3mo	$70,000	$104	67
5825 W Bar X St	0.09mi	2/2.0	550 (-8%)	16mo	$115,000	$209	67
5448 W Lazy St S	0.37mi	2/1.0	600 (0%)	20mo	$82,500	$138	64
5509 W Lazy Heart St	0.36mi	1/1.5 (-1)	620 (+3%)	22mo	$130,000	$210	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-11,513
• Equity at exit: $13,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-13,519
• Equity at exit: $7,825

Cash invested: $25,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$475
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $744/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$208
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $990

Max offer price $90,500

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,625
• Closing costs: $2,715
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $208 · $2,496/yr
• Likely covers: trashpool

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,500 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,500 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,500 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,500 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,500 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,500 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,500 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,500 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,500 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,500 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,500 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,500 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,500 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,500 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $90,500 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Very nice home with bedrooms in the front and back and living room and kitchen in the middle. Three mini-splits heat and cool this home. Guest bedroom in the front has a half bath. Nice screened patio on the west side. Luxury vinyl wood look planking in much of the home. Closet has been removed from the primary bedroom. Roof recently coated and in good shape. The HOA fee in this 55+ community includes unlimited golf, tennis, pickle ball, shuffleboard, pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and much more. You own the land!

16. 2026-01-15
    listed $99,900 Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Very nice home with bedrooms in the front and back and living room and kitchen in the middle. Three mini-splits heat and cool this home. Guest bedroom in the front has a half bath. Nice screened patio on the west side. Luxury vinyl wood look planking in much of the home. Closet has been removed from the primary bedroom. Roof recently coated and in good shape. The HOA fee in this 55+ community includes unlimited golf, tennis, pickle ball, shuffleboard, pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and much more. You own the land!

17. 2019-03-08
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Great mostly furnished home for investment property or winter visitors! Very clean 2 bedroom with 1 ½ baths. Bedrooms are at each end of the home for additional privacy. Very comfortable living room, kitchen, and dining in middle of home. Nice screened porch on the west side of home overlooking a large lemon tree in the yard. Neighboring property on the east has oleanders that offer additional privacy. Well-constructed workshop/storage under carport. Community is adjacent to 44,400 acres of Parkland (Tucson Mountain Park/Saguaro National Park West) with more than 68 miles of hiking, biking & equestrian trails. The HOA fee includes unlimited golf, tennis, pickle ball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and a lot more. You own the land!

18. 2019-03-08
    soldstatus $45,000

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Great mostly furnished home for investment property or winter visitors! Very clean 2 bedroom with 1 ½ baths. Bedrooms are at each end of the home for additional privacy. Very comfortable living room, kitchen, and dining in middle of home. Nice screened porch on the west side of home overlooking a large lemon tree in the yard. Neighboring property on the east has oleanders that offer additional privacy. Well-constructed workshop/storage under carport. Community is adjacent to 44,400 acres of Parkland (Tucson Mountain Park/Saguaro National Park West) with more than 68 miles of hiking, biking & equestrian trails. The HOA fee includes unlimited golf, tennis, pickle ball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and a lot more. You own the land!

19. 2019-03-07
    status Pending 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Great mostly furnished home for investment property or winter visitors! Very clean 2 bedroom with 1 ½ baths. Bedrooms are at each end of the home for additional privacy. Very comfortable living room, kitchen, and dining in middle of home. Nice screened porch on the west side of home overlooking a large lemon tree in the yard. Neighboring property on the east has oleanders that offer additional privacy. Well-constructed workshop/storage under carport. Community is adjacent to 44,400 acres of Parkland (Tucson Mountain Park/Saguaro National Park West) with more than 68 miles of hiking, biking & equestrian trails. The HOA fee includes unlimited golf, tennis, pickle ball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and a lot more. You own the land!

20. 2019-02-18
    historical Active Contingent 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Great mostly furnished home for investment property or winter visitors! Very clean 2 bedroom with 1 ½ baths. Bedrooms are at each end of the home for additional privacy. Very comfortable living room, kitchen, and dining in middle of home. Nice screened porch on the west side of home overlooking a large lemon tree in the yard. Neighboring property on the east has oleanders that offer additional privacy. Well-constructed workshop/storage under carport. Community is adjacent to 44,400 acres of Parkland (Tucson Mountain Park/Saguaro National Park West) with more than 68 miles of hiking, biking & equestrian trails. The HOA fee includes unlimited golf, tennis, pickle ball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and a lot more. You own the land!

21. 2019-01-02
    status Active 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Great mostly furnished home for investment property or winter visitors! Very clean 2 bedroom with 1 ½ baths. Bedrooms are at each end of the home for additional privacy. Very comfortable living room, kitchen, and dining in middle of home. Nice screened porch on the west side of home overlooking a large lemon tree in the yard. Neighboring property on the east has oleanders that offer additional privacy. Well-constructed workshop/storage under carport. Community is adjacent to 44,400 acres of Parkland (Tucson Mountain Park/Saguaro National Park West) with more than 68 miles of hiking, biking & equestrian trails. The HOA fee includes unlimited golf, tennis, pickle ball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and a lot more. You own the land!

22. 2018-12-20
    historical Active Contingent 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Great mostly furnished home for investment property or winter visitors! Very clean 2 bedroom with 1 ½ baths. Bedrooms are at each end of the home for additional privacy. Very comfortable living room, kitchen, and dining in middle of home. Nice screened porch on the west side of home overlooking a large lemon tree in the yard. Neighboring property on the east has oleanders that offer additional privacy. Well-constructed workshop/storage under carport. Community is adjacent to 44,400 acres of Parkland (Tucson Mountain Park/Saguaro National Park West) with more than 68 miles of hiking, biking & equestrian trails. The HOA fee includes unlimited golf, tennis, pickle ball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and a lot more. You own the land!

23. 2018-12-07
    listed $51,900 Active 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Great mostly furnished home for investment property or winter visitors! Very clean 2 bedroom with 1 ½ baths. Bedrooms are at each end of the home for additional privacy. Very comfortable living room, kitchen, and dining in middle of home. Nice screened porch on the west side of home overlooking a large lemon tree in the yard. Neighboring property on the east has oleanders that offer additional privacy. Well-constructed workshop/storage under carport. Community is adjacent to 44,400 acres of Parkland (Tucson Mountain Park/Saguaro National Park West) with more than 68 miles of hiking, biking & equestrian trails. The HOA fee includes unlimited golf, tennis, pickle ball, shuffleboard, 3 pools, spa, exercise room, trash collection, and a lot more. You own the land!

24. 2006-02-07
    soldstatus $55,900
25. 2006-02-07
    soldstatus $55,900
26. 2005-06-15
    listed $55,900
27. 2001-09-20
    soldstatus $30,000
28. 2001-09-18
    soldstatus $30,000
29. 2001-07-03
    listed $31,900
30. 1990-02-13
    soldstatus $22,000
31. 1990-01-01
    soldstatus $22,000
32. 1985-02-01
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $744 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $744 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,069
• − Property taxes: −$744
• − Insurance: −$452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,066
• − Management: −$1,066
• − HOA: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$2,633
• Taxable loss: −$196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$47
• After-tax cash flow: $1,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+546.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $90,500 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-15 Listed $99,900 MLSSAZ
• 2019-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-08 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MLSSAZ
• 2019-03-07 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2019-02-18 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2019-01-02 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2018-12-20 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2018-12-07 Listed $51,900 MLSSAZ
• 2006-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $55,900 Public Records
• 2006-02-07 Sold (MLS) $55,900 MLSSAZ
• 2005-06-15 Listed $55,900 MLSSAZ
• 2001-09-20 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MLSSAZ
• 2001-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-03 Listed $31,900 MLSSAZ
• 1990-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1990-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1985-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $744 · +16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.