2636 Victoria Dr · Potomac Park, CA 93307

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1954 8,276 sqft lot $146/sqft · 41% below area Est $236k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors. .located in the SE this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready for renovation. Located on a large lot with covered patio, covered carport connected to building that could be a shop plus 2 other buildings. Offers subject to interior inspection; drive by only.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Large lot
• Covered patio

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• COVERED CARPORT
• BUILDING THAT COULD BE A SHOP
• 2 OTHER BUILDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property currently occupied by a tenant

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Sewer; Public water
• Home design: R1 zoning
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Front manual sprinklers; Rear manual sprinklers; RV space available (dimensions not measured)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Central heating
• Interior features: Formal living room; Range/Oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.55%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,893
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -40.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Wilma St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+4%)	8mo	$246,000	$246	69
401 Mcclean	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	822 (-14%)	1mo	$250,000	$304	58
2601 Lucky St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,099 (+14%)	9mo	$299,900	$273	55
2223 Steele Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	870 (-9%)	4mo	$240,000	$276	54
2634 Center St	0.57mi	3/2.0	902 (-6%)	8mo	$278,000	$308	52
2503 Monterey St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-1%)	10mo	$175,000	$184	51
311 Ixtapa Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,091 (+14%)	4mo	$310,000	$284	51
203 Isla Del Sol Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,091 (+14%)	2mo	$305,000	$280	49
920 Richmond St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (-6%)	5mo	$205,000	$227	48
2212 Larcus Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-13%)	9mo	$135,000	$162	46
3125 Fillmore Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,036 (+8%)	8mo	$318,000	$307	45
2608 Lake St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	2mo	$153,000	$177	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-688
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $40,522
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93307

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,407/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $319	+0% $279	+5% $240	+10% $200
Rent	-10% $160	-5% $220	+0% $279	+5% $339	+10% $398
Rate	-1.0pp $350	-0.5pp $315	base $279	+0.5pp $243	+1.0pp $206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3017 Potomac Ave Apt 12 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	746	$995	$1.33	3d	1	0.48mi
3017 Potomac Ave Apt 10 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	746	$995	$1.33	44d	1	0.48mi
820 Moore St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,600	$1.48	19d	1	0.55mi
2703 Center St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	0.56mi
2010 Larcus Ave Unit 48 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	11d	1	0.71mi
2010 Larcus Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	4d	3	0.71mi
2010 Larcus Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,400	$1.75	22d	1	0.71mi
2010 Larcus Ave Unit 33 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.72mi
2010 Larcus Ave Unit 13 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,200	$1.50	3d	1	0.76mi
2300 Lake St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1105	$1,650	$1.49	3d	1	0.79mi
720 Beverly Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	44d	1	0.84mi
3306 Gardenia Ave Apt B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	44d	1	0.91mi
2190 Monterey St Unit 9 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	11d	1	0.92mi
2006 Kentucky St Apt 8 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$1,150	$1.38	3d	1	0.95mi
2006 Kentucky St Apt 48 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$1,150	$1.38	44d	1	0.95mi
743 Monticello Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	954	$1,600	$1.68	4d	1	1.04mi
2124 Pacific St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	823	$1,395	$1.70	3d	1	1.11mi
4819 La Posta St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	788	$1,762	$2.24	3d	8	1.19mi
930 Sterling Rd Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	848	$1,150	$1.36	15d	1	1.22mi
1518 Palm Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	715	$1,100	$1.54	3d	1	1.23mi
1813 Oregon St Unit 1815-3 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	3d	1	1.24mi
1603 Palm Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,900	$2.26	3d	1	1.26mi
1710 Oregon St Apt E Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	3d	1	1.35mi
345 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Blvd Apt A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	3d	1	1.42mi
1517 Ralston St Unit 1517-A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	960	$1,295	$1.35	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $139,900 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,900 Active - Contingent 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active - Contingent 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active - Contingent 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active - Contingent 17 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active - Contingent 16 DOM
7. 2026-05-15
   listed $139,900 Active 272-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,407 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,407 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,407
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,444
• − Management: −$1,444
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$276
• After-tax cash flow: $3,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Potomac Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Potomac Park, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 85,945
• Household income: $56,446
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3246.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 69% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.59%
• Current HPI: 447.1746
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-05-27 Contingent — GEMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $139,900 GEMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,407 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.