22194 Young Rd · Combes, TX 78535

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition 0.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home with ample big yard!! Sits on . 68 acre.

Key facts

• Big yard
• 0.68 acre lot
• Built 1987

Tags

• BIG YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.4% in Combes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#728 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dishman El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 320 students, 95% FRL); Gutierrez Middle (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Harlingen H S (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,942 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.49%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $22,236
• Equity at exit: $49,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $66,630
• Equity at exit: $76,225

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78535

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18586 Primera Rd Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	43d	1	1.14mi
2219 Northridge Ave Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	830	$1,000	$1.20	13d	1	1.45mi
2211 Northridge Ave Unit C Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	877	$1,150	$1.31	43d	1	1.47mi
2218 Multi National Unit B Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	877	$1,100	$1.25	13d	1	1.47mi
2204 Northridge Ave Unit 23 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	955	$1,250	$1.31	21d	1	1.48mi
2204 Northridge Ave Unit 2 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	955	$1,250	$1.31	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$66
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16
• After-tax cash flow: $1,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

A fair condition home with moderate updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — basic and outdated
• Moderate exterior siding — visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizes and increases appeal
• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — improves curb appeal and structural integrity

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · basic and outdated	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · visible wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizes and increases appeal ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Combes

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #728
• US rank: #13560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Combes, TX
• City population: 435
• Population (ZIP): 435

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 33% White 26%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 32% English-only · Spanish 68%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $110,000 RGVMLS