21514 Greenham Dr · Houston, TX 77388

$209,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 303 Days on market

Built 1977 8,624 sqft lot $101/sqft · 17% below area Est $251k · 17% under $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is currently tenant-occupied—please do not disturb the tenants. Submit a reasonable price offer for consideration. Don't miss this well-maintained and updated home in a quiet, established neighborhood in Spring, TX. Recent upgrades include new vinyl flooring, fully renovated bathroom wall and floor tiles, a new fence, and new vinyl siding, making this a turnkey investment or future personal residence. This charming home offers great curb appeal and low-maintenance finishes, with close proximity to schools, parks, shopping centers, and major commuter routes. Excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a move-in ready home with current rental income potential.

Key facts

• Turnkey investment
• Updated home
• New vinyl siding

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOM
• NEW FENCE
• NEW VINYL SIDING
• TURNKEY INVESTMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($495/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 12296% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,298
• List price: $209,500
• Delta: -16.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21514 Greenham Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,070 (0%)	0mo	$209,500	$101	100
3310 Keygate Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,181 (+5%)	1mo	$264,900	$121	71
21807 Greengate Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,882 (-9%)	1mo	$368,900	$196	70
21626 Long Castle Dr	0.34mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,094 (+1%)	3mo	$319,500	$153	69
21330 Greenham Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-14%)	2mo	$309,900	$174	64
2423 Daneswood Ct	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,140 (+3%)	2mo	$295,000	$138	63
21907 Hannover Ridge Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,164 (+4%)	0mo	$286,900	$133	62
21823 Hannover Village Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,199 (+6%)	2mo	$324,500	$148	61
21411 Delridge Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,874 (-10%)	1mo	$295,000	$157	58
2314 Hannover Way	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,156 (+4%)	2mo	$294,900	$137	57
3411 La Mer Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,292 (+11%)	1mo	$285,000	$124	46
21611 Falvel Misty Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (-7%)	2mo	$269,000	$140	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-37,523
• Equity at exit: $31,237

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-53,230
• Equity at exit: $18,114

Cash invested: $58,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77388

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax from tax record: −$465 /mo · $5,582/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,124

Max offer price $209,500

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,375
• Closing costs: $6,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21400 Big Spring Valley Ave Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1074	$2,370	$2.21	2d	67	0.39mi
3402 Almondwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,795	$1.27	13d	1	0.66mi
21771 Mossy Field Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1631	$2,150	$1.32	44d	1	0.82mi
4018 Falvel Shadow Creek Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	1458	$1,960	$1.34	11d	1	0.86mi
3880 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,536	$2.45	2d	29	0.87mi
2539 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1086	$2,214	$2.04	2d	20	0.95mi
3123 Spring Ranch Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,819	$1.12	44d	1	1.01mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,178	$1.38	3d	1	1.04mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 4242 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,210	$1.40	11d	1	1.04mi
4310 Stallion Brook Ln Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	2096	$2,175	$1.04	21d	1	1.36mi
4614 Bridgestone Path Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2450	$2,325	$0.95	17d	1	1.41mi
22418 Bridgestone Ridge Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	2932	$2,695	$0.92	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 700-char remark

   Show marketing remark (700 chars)

   This property is currently tenant-occupied—please do not disturb the tenants. Submit a reasonable price offer for consideration. Don't miss this well-maintained and updated home in a quiet, established neighborhood in Spring, TX. Recent upgrades include new vinyl flooring, fully renovated bathroom wall and floor tiles, a new fence, and new vinyl siding, making this a turnkey investment or future personal residence. This charming home offers great curb appeal and low-maintenance finishes, with close proximity to schools, parks, shopping centers, and major commuter routes. Excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a move-in ready home with current rental income potential.

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 700-char remark

   Show marketing remark (700 chars)

   This property is currently tenant-occupied—please do not disturb the tenants. Submit a reasonable price offer for consideration. Don't miss this well-maintained and updated home in a quiet, established neighborhood in Spring, TX. Recent upgrades include new vinyl flooring, fully renovated bathroom wall and floor tiles, a new fence, and new vinyl siding, making this a turnkey investment or future personal residence. This charming home offers great curb appeal and low-maintenance finishes, with close proximity to schools, parks, shopping centers, and major commuter routes. Excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a move-in ready home with current rental income potential.

3. 2026-01-23
   price $209,500 700-char remark

   Show marketing remark (700 chars)

   This property is currently tenant-occupied—please do not disturb the tenants. Submit a reasonable price offer for consideration. Don't miss this well-maintained and updated home in a quiet, established neighborhood in Spring, TX. Recent upgrades include new vinyl flooring, fully renovated bathroom wall and floor tiles, a new fence, and new vinyl siding, making this a turnkey investment or future personal residence. This charming home offers great curb appeal and low-maintenance finishes, with close proximity to schools, parks, shopping centers, and major commuter routes. Excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a move-in ready home with current rental income potential.

4. 2025-12-26
   historical $1,690
5. 2025-12-19
   listed $1,690
6. 2025-11-07
   price $218,000 700-char remark

   Show marketing remark (700 chars)

   This property is currently tenant-occupied—please do not disturb the tenants. Submit a reasonable price offer for consideration. Don't miss this well-maintained and updated home in a quiet, established neighborhood in Spring, TX. Recent upgrades include new vinyl flooring, fully renovated bathroom wall and floor tiles, a new fence, and new vinyl siding, making this a turnkey investment or future personal residence. This charming home offers great curb appeal and low-maintenance finishes, with close proximity to schools, parks, shopping centers, and major commuter routes. Excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a move-in ready home with current rental income potential.

7. 2025-10-09
   historical $1,690
8. 2025-09-23
   listed $1,690
9. 2025-07-21
   listed $238,000 Active 700-char remark

   Show marketing remark (700 chars)

   This property is currently tenant-occupied—please do not disturb the tenants. Submit a reasonable price offer for consideration. Don't miss this well-maintained and updated home in a quiet, established neighborhood in Spring, TX. Recent upgrades include new vinyl flooring, fully renovated bathroom wall and floor tiles, a new fence, and new vinyl siding, making this a turnkey investment or future personal residence. This charming home offers great curb appeal and low-maintenance finishes, with close proximity to schools, parks, shopping centers, and major commuter routes. Excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a move-in ready home with current rental income potential.

10. 2025-07-18
    historical
11. 2025-06-05
    listed $239,000 Active
12. 2021-12-10
    status Pending
13. 2021-12-09
    historical
14. 2021-12-03
    listed $248,000 Active
15. 2020-01-03
    historical
16. 2019-12-25
    listed $189,000 Active
17. 2014-09-06
    historical
18. 2014-09-02
    status Active
19. 2014-09-02
    historical
20. 2014-06-06
    price $134,000
21. 2014-05-29
    listed $139,000 Active
22. 2014-04-17
    historical
23. 2014-04-17
    status Active
24. 2014-04-17
    historical
25. 2014-04-17
    price $139,000
26. 2014-04-10
    price $144,400
27. 2014-02-24
    price $144,900
28. 2014-02-18
    price $146,970
29. 2014-02-14
    listed $155,980 Active
30. 2013-11-11
    historical
31. 2013-11-07
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2013-11-04
    status Pending
33. 2013-10-01
    status Pending, Continue to Show
34. 2013-09-26
    status Active
35. 2013-09-23
    status Pending, Continue to Show
36. 2013-08-31
    status Active
37. 2013-08-10
    status Pending
38. 2013-08-09
    status Pending, Continue to Show
39. 2013-07-25
    listed $97,000 Active
40. 2000-11-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,582 · $465/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,582 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,735
• − Property taxes: −$5,582
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$6,095
• Taxable loss: −$2,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$683
• After-tax cash flow: $1,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,425
• Household income: $102,323
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.68%
• Current HPI: 228.128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+116.0% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $209,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-26 Rental Removed $1,690 Avail
• 2025-12-19 Listed for Rent $1,690 Avail
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $218,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Rental Removed $1,690 Avail
• 2025-09-23 Listed for Rent $1,690 Avail
• 2025-07-21 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-12-03 Listed $248,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-12-25 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2014-09-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-09-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-09-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-06-06 Price Changed $134,000 HARMLS
• 2014-05-29 Listed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2014-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-04-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-04-17 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2014-04-10 Price Changed $144,400 HARMLS
• 2014-02-24 Price Changed $144,900 HARMLS
• 2014-02-18 Price Changed $146,970 HARMLS
• 2014-02-14 Listed $155,980 HARMLS
• 2013-11-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-11-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-11-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-09-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-09-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-08-31 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2013-08-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-08-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-07-25 Listed $97,000 HARMLS
• 2000-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,582 · -7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.