12 Baraw Rd · Lowell, VT 05847

$174,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · Other · 93 Days on market

Built 1920 6.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

4-bedroom, 2-bath farmhouse situated on a 6.1 acre corner lot with private septic, power, and deeded rights to a neighboring spring. This home offers over 1,500 sq ft of living space and features a newly installed on-demand hot water system, along with a three-season porch and attached garage/workshop. The property is in need of rehab but offers strong potential as a primary residence, rental, or investment project. Also on site is a 20' x 38' partially completed kit home on a slab foundation (post and beam framing materials supplied by Jamaica Cottage Shop, located in Londonderry, VT. Features radiant heat (not connected), a buried cistern, loft, large east-facing windows, and a corrugated

Key facts

• Deeded rights
• Buried cistern
• Three-season porch

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DEEDED RIGHTS
• ON-DEMAND HOT WATER SYSTEM
• THREE-SEASON PORCH
• PARTIALLY COMPLETED KIT HOME
• BURIED CISTERN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Private water source (well); Private sewer; Electric: 100 Amp service with circuit breakers; VT Electric Co-op; High-speed internet available; Cable and telephone available
• Home design: Farmhouse style; White exterior; Existing structure
• Construction: Built in 1920; Wood frame with wood exterior; Roof: corrugated metal and asphalt shingles; Basement: partial, unfinished with concrete and dirt floor, exterior and interior access
• Exterior features: Corner lot in a country setting; Wooded lot; Near snowmobile trails; Dirt driveway; Easements present; Public maintained unpaved road frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (2nd level); Additional bedroom (2nd level)
• Flooring: Combination of hardwood, laminate, and wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on 1st level, one on 2nd level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired forced air heating
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Workshop; Living/Dining area; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (1st level); Washer; Dryer; On-demand water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($996/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#105 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 157 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (107 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Orleans County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $129k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $156,020 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $29,839
• Equity at exit: $82,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $94,559
• Equity at exit: $129,902

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05847

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,914/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    listed $179,900 Active
18. 2023-10-09
    soldstatus $129,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,619 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$705/yr (+$59/mo · 36.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,914
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$1,947
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$467
• After-tax cash flow: $1,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Lowell

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #21286

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,154
• Population (ZIP): 1,154

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,222 people
• By 2030: 25,399 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 23,350 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 21,232 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 16,543 · -36.9%
• By 2100: 11,566 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.4% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.1pp toward R · 2008: 27.5pp · 2024: -1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.6 2020: D+4.5 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+24.2 2008: D+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Current HPI: 173.8699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+39.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $179,900 PrimeMLS
• 2023-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,914 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.