527 23rd St · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$124,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1929 4,960 sqft lot Est $129k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2 full bath home offering flexible living with a convenient first-floor bedroom and adjacent full bath—both baths feature walk-in showers. Generous room sizes throughout create comfortable living and entertaining spaces. The kitchen boasts tons of cupboard and counter space and a breakfast bar opening it to the formal dining room with slider to a raised patio area, ideal for outdoor enjoyment. French doors from the entry hall lead to the living room, adding character and separation of space. Major mechanical and structural updates are complete: tear-off roof (2025), furnace (2023), central air (2025), hot water tank (2025), newer sewer line (approx. 3 yrs), and mos

Key facts

• First-floor bedroom
• Raised patio area
• French doors

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWERS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• RAISED PATIO AREA
• FRENCH DOORS
• TEAR-OFF ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $124k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,364/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($861 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,456
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
527 23rd St	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (0%)	1mo	$154,000	$103	92
451 20th St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,440 (-3%)	2mo	$85,000	$59	80
554 31st St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,524 (+2%)	2mo	$156,000	$102	71
552 29th St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+6%)	4mo	$140,000	$89	69
628 20th St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-11%)	2mo	$115,000	$87	68
2526 Walnut Ave	0.19mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,664 (+12%)	3mo	$112,000	$67	62
435 13th St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+2%)	2mo	$40,000	$26	60
1968 Welch Ave	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+11%)	3mo	$139,900	$84	57
3510 Chapin Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,547 (+4%)	3mo	$184,900	$120	57
605 29th St	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (-11%)	3mo	$130,000	$98	54
1146 Haeberle Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,408 (-5%)	4mo	$115,000	$82	52
1148 Haeberle Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,302 (-12%)	4mo	$85,000	$65	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $85,821
• Equity at exit: $112,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.52×
• Total profit: $262,236
• Equity at exit: $241,876

Cash invested: $34,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$653
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,452/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $124,500

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $239	-5% $204	+0% $169	+5% $134	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $115	+0% $169	+5% $223	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $232	-0.5pp $201	base $169	+0.5pp $137	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,125
• Closing costs: $3,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.23mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	11d	1	0.36mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.42mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	22d	1	0.42mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.45mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	0.48mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.51mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.58mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	0.59mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	24d	1	0.60mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	4d	1	0.65mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	4d	1	0.67mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	44d	1	0.67mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	15d	1	0.81mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	17d	1	0.97mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.99mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	2d	1	1.16mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	2d	1	1.16mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	4d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   listed $124,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,452 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,974
• − Property taxes: −$2,452
• − Insurance: −$622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − Depreciation: −$3,622
• Taxable income: $84
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20
• After-tax cash flow: $2,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $124,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,452 · +211.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.