170 Walnut Creek Way · Gray, GA 31032

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2000 ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Creekfront retreat on 3 acres at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. This updated home offers peaceful country living with mature hardwoods, scenic creek views and access, pear trees, and plenty of space to relax, explore, or entertain outdoors. Inside, you & acirc; & euro; & trade; ll find updated flooring, new appliances, fresh modern finishes, creek views, lots of natural light, an open living area, and a bright kitchen with island seating and ample cabinet space. Major updates include a newer roof and HVAC system (both approximately 5 years old), giving added peace of mind. The property combines natural beauty and convenience in a hard-to-find setting. This property offers a uniq

Key facts

• Pear trees
• Creekfront retreat
• 3 acres

Tags

• CREEKFRONT RETREAT
• 3 ACRES
• END-OF-CUL-DE-SAC LOCATION
• WALKABLE CREEK ACCESS
• MATURE TREES
• PEAR TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.2% in Gray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#26 in GA, #3,600 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #72 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $160k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,894 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,141
• Equity at exit: $37,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $29,191
• Equity at exit: $32,836

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31032

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $567/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,421

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $190,000 Active
17. 2012-08-02
    soldstatus $160,160
18. 2005-03-28
    soldstatus $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,748 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,181/yr (+$98/mo · 208.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$567
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $446
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$107
• After-tax cash flow: $3,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County
• NCES district ID: 1303150
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,630
• Composite: 28.84/100
• National rank: #6649
• State rank: #72 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gray

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #3600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,755

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,682 people
• By 2030: 28,394 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 27,246 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,575 · -10.8%
• By 2075: 21,857 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 17,453 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 18% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.8% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Current HPI: 211.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-45.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $190,000 FSBO.com
• 2012-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $160,160 Public Records
• 2005-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $567 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.