54 Oceanview Ave · Half Moon Bay, CA 94019

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 648 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2026

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW Half Moon Bay Manufactured Home in Ca & Atilde; & plusmn; ada Cove Lot rent $1255 per month Accent Homes Inc DL 3187 Vance Verderame CEO Equal Opportunity Housing Provider

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 33 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $398k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $387k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.4% in Half Moon Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#78 in CA, #2,976 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Cabrillo Unified (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #498 of 1,400 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,019 units permitted in San Mateo County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($154k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Mateo County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $387,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.16%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Lighthouse Rd #10	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (+11%)	0mo	$180,000	$250	69
2 Sea Shell Cir #2	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	672 (+4%)	21mo	$105,000	$156	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-39,937
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-2,781
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94019

• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$836
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $399,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $420,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $420,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $420,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $420,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,821
• − Management: −$3,821
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$1,815
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$435
• After-tax cash flow: $5,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabrillo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0606780
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $105,943
• Composite: 43.02/100
• National rank: #6651
• State rank: #498 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Half Moon Bay

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #2976

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Half Moon Bay, CA
• County: San Mateo County · 733,415 people
• City population: 14,419
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,419
• Household income: $153,781
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 188.0

Population outlook (San Mateo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 864,008 people
• By 2030: 910,523 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 997,285 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 1,071,189 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 1,197,206 · +38.6%
• By 2100: 1,192,523 · +38.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 19% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Mateo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.3) · D 73.5% · R 23.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 48.7pp · 2024: 50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.3 2020: D+57.7 2016: D+57.7 2012: D+44.8 2008: D+48.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -983.61%
• Current HPI: 299.1885
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $420,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2018): $8 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.