6517 Firefly Dr · Bagdad, FL 32583

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot Est $245k · at est. $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Callaway plan is a lovely three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. As you enter through the threshold of the covered front porch, a warm embrace awaits you in the form of a spacious and inviting living and kitchen area, cleverly designed to create an open and airy ambiance. The kitchen offers beautiful cabinetry, an under-mount sink, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry. Throughout the entirety of this home, you'll find beautiful flooring, ensuring a seamless flow from room to room. Additionally, it's worth noting that the bedrooms are free from carpet, adding a touch of practicality to the overall aesthetic. Your new home is designed with you in mind and is built with an industry leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Our Home is Connected package offers a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient devices for you to enjoy! Discover for yourself what this community has to offer!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Pantry
• Under-mount sink

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UNDER-MOUNT SINK
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PANTRY
• BEDROOMS FREE FROM CARPET
• SMART HOME PRODUCTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bagdad Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 69% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $207,386 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,615
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6509 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	0mo	$244,900	$203	100
6497 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	1mo	$239,900	$199	99
6489 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	3mo	$249,900	$207	97
6481 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	3mo	$245,000	$203	97
6473 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	4mo	$244,900	$203	97
6449 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	5mo	$245,000	$203	95
6461 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	6mo	$240,000	$199	95
6333 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	9mo	$254,900	$212	92
6333 Firefly Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	9mo	$254,900	$212	79
4331 Audiss Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,153 (-4%)	2mo	$220,000	$191	78
6349 Firefly Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	9mo	$250,000	$207	77
6333 Rice St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+1%)	4mo	$250,000	$206	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,338
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-38,145
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,256

Max offer price $229,113

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	21d	1	0.24mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	23d	1	0.88mi
6436 Highway 90 Milton, FL	2.0	1.0	512	$1,395	$2.72	14d	8	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $249,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $252,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on marketlisting id $249,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    status Pending 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    The Callaway plan is a lovely three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. As you enter through the threshold of the covered front porch, a warm embrace awaits you in the form of a spacious and inviting living and kitchen area, cleverly designed to create an open and airy ambiance. The kitchen offers beautiful cabinetry, an under-mount sink, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry. Throughout the entirety of this home, you'll find beautiful flooring, ensuring a seamless flow from room to room. Additionally, it's worth noting that the bedrooms are free from carpet, adding a touch of practicality to the overall aesthetic. Your new home is designed with you in mind and is built with an industry leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Our Home is Connected package offers a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient devices for you to enjoy! Discover for yourself what this community has to offer!

11. 2026-05-14
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    The Callaway plan is a lovely three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. As you enter through the threshold of the covered front porch, a warm embrace awaits you in the form of a spacious and inviting living and kitchen area, cleverly designed to create an open and airy ambiance. The kitchen offers beautiful cabinetry, an under-mount sink, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry. Throughout the entirety of this home, you'll find beautiful flooring, ensuring a seamless flow from room to room. Additionally, it's worth noting that the bedrooms are free from carpet, adding a touch of practicality to the overall aesthetic. Your new home is designed with you in mind and is built with an industry leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Our Home is Connected package offers a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient devices for you to enjoy! Discover for yourself what this community has to offer!

12. 2026-04-06
    price $249,900

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    The Callaway plan is a lovely three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. As you enter through the threshold of the covered front porch, a warm embrace awaits you in the form of a spacious and inviting living and kitchen area, cleverly designed to create an open and airy ambiance. The kitchen offers beautiful cabinetry, an under-mount sink, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry. Throughout the entirety of this home, you'll find beautiful flooring, ensuring a seamless flow from room to room. Additionally, it's worth noting that the bedrooms are free from carpet, adding a touch of practicality to the overall aesthetic. Your new home is designed with you in mind and is built with an industry leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Our Home is Connected package offers a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient devices for you to enjoy! Discover for yourself what this community has to offer!

13. 2026-04-06
    price $249,900 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    The Callaway plan is a lovely three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. As you enter through the threshold of the covered front porch, a warm embrace awaits you in the form of a spacious and inviting living and kitchen area, cleverly designed to create an open and airy ambiance. The kitchen offers beautiful cabinetry, an under-mount sink, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry. Throughout the entirety of this home, you'll find beautiful flooring, ensuring a seamless flow from room to room. Additionally, it's worth noting that the bedrooms are free from carpet, adding a touch of practicality to the overall aesthetic. Your new home is designed with you in mind and is built with an industry leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Our Home is Connected package offers a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient devices for you to enjoy! Discover for yourself what this community has to offer!

14. 2026-03-26
    listed $255,900 Active
15. 2026-03-24
    listed $255,900 Active 966-char remark

    Show marketing remark (966 chars)

    The Callaway plan is a lovely three-bedroom, two-bathroom home. As you enter through the threshold of the covered front porch, a warm embrace awaits you in the form of a spacious and inviting living and kitchen area, cleverly designed to create an open and airy ambiance. The kitchen offers beautiful cabinetry, an under-mount sink, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry. Throughout the entirety of this home, you'll find beautiful flooring, ensuring a seamless flow from room to room. Additionally, it's worth noting that the bedrooms are free from carpet, adding a touch of practicality to the overall aesthetic. Your new home is designed with you in mind and is built with an industry leading suite of smart home products that keep you connected with the people and place you value most. Our Home is Connected package offers a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient devices for you to enjoy! Discover for yourself what this community has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$6,022
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,445
• After-tax cash flow: $-279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It's ready for a new owner or tenant.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $249,900 ECAR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $249,900 PARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $255,900 ECAR
• 2026-03-24 Listed $255,900 PARMLS