902 Turney St · Smithville, TX 78957

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1960 9,016 sqft lot $155/sqft · 18% below area Est $335k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special in Smithville, TX with major value-add potential! This partially remodeled 2 bed, 2 bath home offers an easy 3-bedroom conversion—ideal for increasing resale value, rental income, or short-term rental potential just minutes from downtown. Located in the heart of Bastrop County near Austin growth corridors, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a fixer-upper with upside. Featuring solid bones, a flexible layout, detached garage, and gated wrought-iron fencing, the heavy lifting is already started. Seller is including flooring materials, helping reduce renovation costs and accelerate completion—making this a strong opportunity for a quick turnaround or long-term hold. Close to shopping, dining, schools, and local events, this property checks all the boxes for primary residence, Airbnb, or cash-flow investment. Opportunities like this in Smithville are getting harder to find—don’t miss it.

Key facts

• Flexible layout
• Floor tile included
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• GATED WROUGHT-IRON FENCE
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• FLOOR TILE INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.0% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Smithville ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #333 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $124k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,237 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,412
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -18.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
910 Garwood St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,694 (-4%)	4mo	$339,911	$201	82
707 Bishop St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,672 (-5%)	3mo	$350,000	$209	80
1001 Charleston Blvd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+8%)	4mo	$465,000	$244	75
129 Callie St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,746 (-1%)	1mo	$319,999	$183	74
600 Wilkes St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-4%)	2mo	$270,000	$159	72
117 Callie St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,812 (+2%)	4mo	$299,000	$165	72
104 Callie St	0.53mi	3/3.0	1,858 (+5%)	2mo	$309,990	$167	61
105 Callie St	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,846 (+4%)	3mo	$299,000	$162	58
103 Les Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (-3%)	0mo	$400,000	$233	57
103 Turney St	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,932 (+9%)	3mo	$425,000	$220	54
106 Hudgins St	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,842 (+4%)	3mo	$275,000	$149	53
200 Gresham St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,587 (-10%)	2mo	$345,000	$217	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-59,487
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-70,917
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78957

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$364 /mo · $4,365/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,430

Max offer price $233,334

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 Olive St Smithville, TX	2.0	2.0	1521	$1,995	$1.31	43d	1	0.63mi
109 Les Ln Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$2,600	$1.43	43d	1	0.72mi
403 Fawcett St Smithville, TX	2.0	1.0	1528	$1,700	$1.11	43d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $274,900 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,999 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,999 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,999 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $279,999 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $284,999 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,999 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,999 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,999 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,999 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $284,999 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Investor special in Smithville, TX with major value-add potential! This partially remodeled 2 bed, 2 bath home offers an easy 3-bedroom conversion—ideal for increasing resale value, rental income, or short-term rental potential just minutes from downtown. Located in the heart of Bastrop County near Austin growth corridors, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a fixer-upper with upside. Featuring solid bones, a flexible layout, detached garage, and gated wrought-iron fencing, the heavy lifting is already started. Seller is including flooring materials, helping reduce renovation costs and accelerate completion—making this a strong opportunity for a quick turnaround or long-term hold. Close to shopping, dining, schools, and local events, this property checks all the boxes for primary residence, Airbnb, or cash-flow investment. Opportunities like this in Smithville are getting harder to find—don’t miss it.

16. 2026-04-16
    price $299,999 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Investor special in Smithville, TX with major value-add potential! This partially remodeled 2 bed, 2 bath home offers an easy 3-bedroom conversion—ideal for increasing resale value, rental income, or short-term rental potential just minutes from downtown. Located in the heart of Bastrop County near Austin growth corridors, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a fixer-upper with upside. Featuring solid bones, a flexible layout, detached garage, and gated wrought-iron fencing, the heavy lifting is already started. Seller is including flooring materials, helping reduce renovation costs and accelerate completion—making this a strong opportunity for a quick turnaround or long-term hold. Close to shopping, dining, schools, and local events, this property checks all the boxes for primary residence, Airbnb, or cash-flow investment. Opportunities like this in Smithville are getting harder to find—don’t miss it.

17. 2026-03-30
    price $319,000 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Investor special in Smithville, TX with major value-add potential! This partially remodeled 2 bed, 2 bath home offers an easy 3-bedroom conversion—ideal for increasing resale value, rental income, or short-term rental potential just minutes from downtown. Located in the heart of Bastrop County near Austin growth corridors, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a fixer-upper with upside. Featuring solid bones, a flexible layout, detached garage, and gated wrought-iron fencing, the heavy lifting is already started. Seller is including flooring materials, helping reduce renovation costs and accelerate completion—making this a strong opportunity for a quick turnaround or long-term hold. Close to shopping, dining, schools, and local events, this property checks all the boxes for primary residence, Airbnb, or cash-flow investment. Opportunities like this in Smithville are getting harder to find—don’t miss it.

18. 2026-02-25
    price $324,900 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Investor special in Smithville, TX with major value-add potential! This partially remodeled 2 bed, 2 bath home offers an easy 3-bedroom conversion—ideal for increasing resale value, rental income, or short-term rental potential just minutes from downtown. Located in the heart of Bastrop County near Austin growth corridors, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a fixer-upper with upside. Featuring solid bones, a flexible layout, detached garage, and gated wrought-iron fencing, the heavy lifting is already started. Seller is including flooring materials, helping reduce renovation costs and accelerate completion—making this a strong opportunity for a quick turnaround or long-term hold. Close to shopping, dining, schools, and local events, this property checks all the boxes for primary residence, Airbnb, or cash-flow investment. Opportunities like this in Smithville are getting harder to find—don’t miss it.

19. 2026-01-28
    price $349,000 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Investor special in Smithville, TX with major value-add potential! This partially remodeled 2 bed, 2 bath home offers an easy 3-bedroom conversion—ideal for increasing resale value, rental income, or short-term rental potential just minutes from downtown. Located in the heart of Bastrop County near Austin growth corridors, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a fixer-upper with upside. Featuring solid bones, a flexible layout, detached garage, and gated wrought-iron fencing, the heavy lifting is already started. Seller is including flooring materials, helping reduce renovation costs and accelerate completion—making this a strong opportunity for a quick turnaround or long-term hold. Close to shopping, dining, schools, and local events, this property checks all the boxes for primary residence, Airbnb, or cash-flow investment. Opportunities like this in Smithville are getting harder to find—don’t miss it.

20. 2026-01-09
    listed $399,000 Active 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Investor special in Smithville, TX with major value-add potential! This partially remodeled 2 bed, 2 bath home offers an easy 3-bedroom conversion—ideal for increasing resale value, rental income, or short-term rental potential just minutes from downtown. Located in the heart of Bastrop County near Austin growth corridors, this property is perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking for a fixer-upper with upside. Featuring solid bones, a flexible layout, detached garage, and gated wrought-iron fencing, the heavy lifting is already started. Seller is including flooring materials, helping reduce renovation costs and accelerate completion—making this a strong opportunity for a quick turnaround or long-term hold. Close to shopping, dining, schools, and local events, this property checks all the boxes for primary residence, Airbnb, or cash-flow investment. Opportunities like this in Smithville are getting harder to find—don’t miss it.

21. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus Closed 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    One-story original owner home in Smithville near schools. Lots of space in this 1,768 Sf home with 3 bedrooms, 2 living areas, dining area and breakfast area. Washer and dryer connection inside bathroom 2. Bathroom 2 wall shows previous termite damage but termites were treated and eradicated years ago. Metal roof and some carpet most recent updates. Most buyers will want to make additional modernizing updates and price reflects that need. Does not have central heat or air. See SDN. Large detached garage, workshop, storage shed combination building a bonus!

22. 2021-04-15
    status Pending 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    One-story original owner home in Smithville near schools. Lots of space in this 1,768 Sf home with 3 bedrooms, 2 living areas, dining area and breakfast area. Washer and dryer connection inside bathroom 2. Bathroom 2 wall shows previous termite damage but termites were treated and eradicated years ago. Metal roof and some carpet most recent updates. Most buyers will want to make additional modernizing updates and price reflects that need. Does not have central heat or air. See SDN. Large detached garage, workshop, storage shed combination building a bonus!

23. 2021-03-15
    historical Active Under Contract 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    One-story original owner home in Smithville near schools. Lots of space in this 1,768 Sf home with 3 bedrooms, 2 living areas, dining area and breakfast area. Washer and dryer connection inside bathroom 2. Bathroom 2 wall shows previous termite damage but termites were treated and eradicated years ago. Metal roof and some carpet most recent updates. Most buyers will want to make additional modernizing updates and price reflects that need. Does not have central heat or air. See SDN. Large detached garage, workshop, storage shed combination building a bonus!

24. 2021-03-05
    listed $175,000 Active 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    One-story original owner home in Smithville near schools. Lots of space in this 1,768 Sf home with 3 bedrooms, 2 living areas, dining area and breakfast area. Washer and dryer connection inside bathroom 2. Bathroom 2 wall shows previous termite damage but termites were treated and eradicated years ago. Metal roof and some carpet most recent updates. Most buyers will want to make additional modernizing updates and price reflects that need. Does not have central heat or air. See SDN. Large detached garage, workshop, storage shed combination building a bonus!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,365 · $364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,031 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$666/yr (+$56/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,365
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$7,641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,834
• After-tax cash flow: $-990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,794
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4776
• State rank: #333 of 826 in TX

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #577
• US rank: #11003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,282

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 275.3765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+62.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $284,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $299,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $319,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $324,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $349,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $399,000 Unlock MLS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2021-04-15 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2021-03-15 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2021-03-05 Listed $175,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,365 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.