1442 Whitewater Dr · Little Elm, TX 75068

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,429 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2006 6,055 sqft lot $196/sqft · 16% below area Est $334k · 16% under $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1442 Whitewater Dr, a beautifully updated home in a sought-after Little Elm neighborhood, just minutes from the scenic shores of Lake Lewisville. This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,429 square feet of comfortable living space, a 2-car garage, and a generously sized backyard ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Step inside to discover an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for both everyday living and hosting guests. Recent upgrades include luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh neutral paint, updated lighting, ceiling fans, and modern hardware throughout, creating a clean and contemporary look. The kitchen is well-equipped with ample cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and a convenient pantry. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom with a soaking tub and separate shower. Two additional bedrooms are spacious and share a full guest bath. Outside, the spacious backyard offers endless possibilities—whether you envision a pool, garden, play area, or space for weekend gatherings. Situated in an established community with sidewalks and nearby parks, this home is just minutes from top-rated schools, major highways, shopping, dining, and entertainment. It’s also conveniently located approximately 15–20 minutes from the upcoming Universal Kids theme park, expected to be completed in late 2026—adding exciting future appeal and long-term value to the area. With proven rental income potential, this property also presents a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers looking to offset their mortgage. Ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors, this home is a true standout in one of North Texas’ most desirable areas.

Key facts

• 6,055 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.0% in Little Elm — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#790 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,959 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.85%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,293
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -16.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1521 Breeze Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,429 (0%)	8mo	$298,500	$209	83
1413 Whitewater Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+12%)	0mo	$349,990	$218	75
2624 Rockport Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+6%)	2mo	$250,000	$166	66
2613 Salt Maker Way	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+6%)	6mo	$299,000	$198	66
1709 Silverwood Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+6%)	2mo	$299,000	$198	65
1409 Sun Breeze Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+13%)	9mo	$315,000	$195	61
1720 Pebblebrook Way	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+6%)	11mo	$1,995	$1	61
2617 Peach Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+6%)	3mo	$301,500	$200	54
2716 Winterberry Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+9%)	10mo	$350,000	$224	53
2117 Sunny Side Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,502 (+5%)	10mo	$369,900	$246	43
1571 Thornhill Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-11%)	11mo	$290,000	$229	42
2028 Sunny Side Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+12%)	12mo	$320,000	$200	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-72,121
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-114,232
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,305 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,981/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,706

Max offer price $223,959

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-158	-5% $-237	+0% $-317	+5% $-396	+10% $-475
Rent	-10% $-499	-5% $-408	+0% $-317	+5% $-226	+10% $-135
Rate	-1.0pp $-176	-0.5pp $-245	base $-317	+0.5pp $-389	+1.0pp $-463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1428 Waterford Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$2,115	$1.48	2d	1	0.10mi
2832 Cresent Lake Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,250	$1.46	44d	1	0.21mi
2793 Cresent Lake Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$2,300	$1.25	5d	1	0.21mi
2629 Salt Maker Way Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,895	$1.26	44d	1	0.38mi
2600 Misty Harbor Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1831	$2,000	$1.09	45d	1	0.49mi
2716 Dawn Spring Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,100	$1.28	25d	1	0.66mi
2408 Rolling Ridge Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,895	$1.49	44d	1	0.71mi
338 Castleridge Dr Unit A Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.5	1491	$2,550	$1.71	7d	1	0.76mi
338 Castleridge Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.5	1491	$2,550	$1.71	44d	1	0.76mi
320 Woodgrove Dr Unit A Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.5	1740	$2,100	$1.21	25d	1	0.76mi
529 Port Arthur Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$2,000	$1.71	44d	1	0.80mi
1046 Port Isabel Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,200	$1.41	13d	1	0.90mi
2333 Aurora Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,400	$1.32	25d	1	0.91mi
1006 Port Aransas Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1729	$2,295	$1.33	12d	1	0.92mi
1579 Crown View Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,075	$1.30	5d	1	0.93mi
2365 White Pine Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,310	$1.24	2d	1	0.97mi
2253 Barx Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1521	$2,195	$1.44	3d	1	1.01mi
2157 Olivereta Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1521	$2,400	$1.58	44d	1	1.11mi
119 Hillside Beach Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	44d	1	1.19mi
2701 Evening Mist Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.32mi
413 Windridge Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1527	$1,100	$0.72	25d	1	1.33mi
2104 Oakridge Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,400	$1.49	44d	1	1.34mi
2757 Cascade Cove Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,600	$1.46	6d	1	1.35mi
2955 Stunning Dr Little Elm, TX	3.0	3.5	1844	$2,700	$1.46	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $279,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $299,900 Active 1793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1793 chars)

    Welcome to 1442 Whitewater Dr, a beautifully updated home in a sought-after Little Elm neighborhood, just minutes from the scenic shores of Lake Lewisville. This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,429 square feet of comfortable living space, a 2-car garage, and a generously sized backyard ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Step inside to discover an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for both everyday living and hosting guests. Recent upgrades include luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh neutral paint, updated lighting, ceiling fans, and modern hardware throughout, creating a clean and contemporary look. The kitchen is well-equipped with ample cabinetry, a breakfast bar, and a convenient pantry. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom with a soaking tub and separate shower. Two additional bedrooms are spacious and share a full guest bath. Outside, the spacious backyard offers endless possibilities—whether you envision a pool, garden, play area, or space for weekend gatherings. Situated in an established community with sidewalks and nearby parks, this home is just minutes from top-rated schools, major highways, shopping, dining, and entertainment. It’s also conveniently located approximately 15–20 minutes from the upcoming Universal Kids theme park, expected to be completed in late 2026—adding exciting future appeal and long-term value to the area. With proven rental income potential, this property also presents a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers looking to offset their mortgage. Ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors, this home is a true standout in one of North Texas’ most desirable areas.

16. 2026-02-24
    status Active
17. 2026-02-24
    historical
18. 2025-10-06
    price $299,000
19. 2025-08-01
    price $319,000
20. 2025-06-11
    listed $339,000 Active
21. 2024-03-26
    soldstatus
22. 2015-03-20
    historical
23. 2015-03-18
    listed $149,500 Active
24. 2014-07-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,981 · $498/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,981 · $498/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$5,981
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,213
• − Management: −$2,213
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$8,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,070
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Elm ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827720
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,400
• Composite: 36.17/100
• National rank: #4734
• State rank: #327 of 826 in TX

Livability — Little Elm

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #790
• US rank: #14430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Little Elm, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 72,710
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $319,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-11 Listed $339,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2015-03-18 Listed $149,500 NTREIS
• 2014-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,981 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.