6850 Downing Rd Spc 2 · Medford, OR 97502

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · Land public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1992 $60/sqft · 41% above area Est $39k · 41% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for an opportunity to own an affordable, beautiful home in Central Point? This move-in ready home offers the perfect mix of comfort, charm, and value. Featuring a spacious 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom split floor plan, you'll enjoy a layout that feels open while still providing separation and privacy. The home has been very well maintained and is ready for its new owner to settle in right away. Step outside to a peaceful fenced yard, a shaded deck perfect for relaxing, plus a shed and carport for extra convenience. Enjoy a quiet, rural feel while still being just minutes from town and everything Central Point has to offer.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Shaded deck
• Parking

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• SHADED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $925 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.5% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Central Point SD 6 (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #42 of 58 in OR (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.06%
• DSCR: 4.21
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,000
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: 41.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $52,255
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.50×
• Total profit: $130,894
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97502

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $925

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $55,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $64,500 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-03
    price $64,500 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Are you looking for an opportunity to own an affordable, beautiful home in Central Point? This move-in ready home offers the perfect mix of comfort, charm, and value. Featuring a spacious 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom split floor plan, you'll enjoy a layout that feels open while still providing separation and privacy. The home has been very well maintained and is ready for its new owner to settle in right away. Step outside to a peaceful fenced yard, a shaded deck perfect for relaxing, plus a shed and carport for extra convenience. Enjoy a quiet, rural feel while still being just minutes from town and everything Central Point has to offer.

17. 2026-04-22
    listed $75,000 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Are you looking for an opportunity to own an affordable, beautiful home in Central Point? This move-in ready home offers the perfect mix of comfort, charm, and value. Featuring a spacious 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom split floor plan, you'll enjoy a layout that feels open while still providing separation and privacy. The home has been very well maintained and is ready for its new owner to settle in right away. Step outside to a peaceful fenced yard, a shaded deck perfect for relaxing, plus a shed and carport for extra convenience. Enjoy a quiet, rural feel while still being just minutes from town and everything Central Point has to offer.

18. 2022-09-12
    soldstatus $64,500 Closed 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Super clean and ready for a new owner to settle right in. Spacious 2 bedroom/2bath split floor plan to allow for privacy. New exterior paint and copper piping to HVAC in 2022. New water heater in 2017. Washer, dryer and refrigerator stay with property. Very peaceful fenced in yard, shaded deck, shed for extra storage and carport. Rural feeling yet close to town for all your needs. Family park.

19. 2022-08-29
    status Pending 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Super clean and ready for a new owner to settle right in. Spacious 2 bedroom/2bath split floor plan to allow for privacy. New exterior paint and copper piping to HVAC in 2022. New water heater in 2017. Washer, dryer and refrigerator stay with property. Very peaceful fenced in yard, shaded deck, shed for extra storage and carport. Rural feeling yet close to town for all your needs. Family park.

20. 2022-08-22
    listed $70,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Super clean and ready for a new owner to settle right in. Spacious 2 bedroom/2bath split floor plan to allow for privacy. New exterior paint and copper piping to HVAC in 2022. New water heater in 2017. Washer, dryer and refrigerator stay with property. Very peaceful fenced in yard, shaded deck, shed for extra storage and carport. Rural feeling yet close to town for all your needs. Family park.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $10,869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,609
• After-tax cash flow: $8,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Point SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4102940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,736
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7290
• State rank: #42 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 29,067
• Household income: $83,488
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 650.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -446.66%
• Current HPI: 252.2725
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.33%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $64,500 MLSCO
• 2026-04-22 Listed $75,000 MLSCO
• 2022-09-12 Sold (MLS) $64,500 MLSCO
• 2022-08-29 Pending — MLSCO
• 2022-08-22 Listed $70,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+30.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $38 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.