31 Private Drive 1533 · Hernandez, NM 87537

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Other public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1940 0.58 ac lot ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• Parking
• Listed 181 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electricity available; Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Year built unknown; Basement foundation
• Construction: Metal, pitched roof
• Exterior features: 0.58-acre lot (surveyed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Basement present (Crawl Space)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: No interior steps; Not ADA compliant

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($863 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#338 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Rio Arriba County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.79%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $18,810
• Equity at exit: $38,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $54,930
• Equity at exit: $58,901

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87537

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $787/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $692

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $159	+0% $135	+5% $111	+10% $87
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $101	+0% $135	+5% $169	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $178	-0.5pp $156	base $135	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 161 DOM
16. 2025-12-09
    listed $85,000 Active
17. 2025-06-10
    price $90,000
18. 2024-10-27
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $787 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $787 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$787
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$828
• − Management: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60
• After-tax cash flow: $1,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Hernandez

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #338
• US rank: #26549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernandez, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,030

Population outlook (Rio Arriba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,893 people
• By 2030: 35,060 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 31,035 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 27,056 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 19,056 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 12,332 · -66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 90% Native American 5% Two or more races 5% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 72%

Political lean MEDSL · Rio Arriba

• 2024 margin: D (+19.4) · D 58.6% · R 39.2% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.4pp toward R · 2008: 50.9pp · 2024: 19.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.4 2020: D+33.6 2016: D+40.3 2012: D+52.6 2008: D+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Listed $85,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $90,000 Santa Fe MLS
• 2024-10-27 Listed $105,000 Santa Fe MLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $787 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.