28810 Golden Wheat Ct · Houston, TX 77447

$242,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Newlin Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by CCMC; HOA fee $1,200 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Additional bedrooms on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen open to family room; Kitchen/dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $242,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $309,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $243k).
• Recommended offer: $236k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,990
• List price: $242,990
• Delta: -21.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16307 Golden Corral Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+2%)	1mo	$303,990	$193	81
16222 Domestic Dove Way	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+13%)	1mo	$307,990	$177	70
16303 Golden Corral Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+8%)	1mo	$332,990	$201	67
16315 Golden Corral Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+8%)	1mo	$318,990	$193	66
16859 Spotted Oak Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-5%)	1mo	$270,990	$185	60
16311 Golden Corral Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+14%)	1mo	$326,990	$187	60
28530 Golden Hay Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-8%)	1mo	$263,990	$187	53
28538 Golden Hay Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+7%)	1mo	$291,990	$178	51
28514 Golden Hay Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+7%)	1mo	$282,990	$172	50
16850 Old Wagon Way	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (+9%)	1mo	$286,990	$172	48
28518 Golden Hay Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (+9%)	1mo	$241,140	$144	48
16846 Spotted Oak Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-14%)	0mo	$220,090	$166	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-74,200
• Equity at exit: $46,221

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-114,124
• Equity at exit: $26,802

Cash invested: $86,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,838

Max offer price $271,996

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,498
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	44d	1	0.13mi
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	44d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 618-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,990 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,990 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,990 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,990 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,990 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,990 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,990 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $242,990 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $242,990 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,990 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,990 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $242,990 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,990 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $242,990 585-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $249,990 Active 585-char remark
17. 2026-04-24
    historical
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $249,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 90% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,364
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,406
• − Management: −$2,406
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$8,522
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,045
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $242,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $249,990 HARMLS