1530 E Black Squirrel Ln SE · Oak Island, NC 28422

$312,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2023 7,841 sqft lot Est $308k · at est. $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence nestled in a quiet neighborhood with low monthly HOA dues and no flooding issues. Thoughtfully enhanced with stylish upgrades throughout, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and modern farmhouse charm. Inside, you'll find no carpet and durable vinyl plank flooring throughout, including new flooring installed in all bedrooms in January 2026. The living room showcases beautiful farmhouse wood paneling, while decorative molding and custom wood trim add character and sophistication to the hallway. The dining room and front bedroom feature elegant wainscoting wall paneling for an elevated finish. The primary suite ser

Key facts

• No carpet
• Updated residence
• Custom wood trim

Tags

• UPDATED RESIDENCE
• NO CARPET
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FARMHOUSE WOOD PANELING
• DECORATIVE MOLDING
• CUSTOM WOOD TRIM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Avalon
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $516 (about $43/mo); No listed association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage with garage door opener; Total 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story home; Entry level: 1; Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Construction: Built on a slab foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Front porch; Fenced backyard with wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Shingle roof; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric range; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Master suite on the main level; Walk-in closet(s); High ceilings; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Smart thermostat; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-888/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Oak Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#233 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 569 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,523 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,465
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1608 Godney Ct SE	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+1%)	1mo	$254,500	$156	78
1728 Culdees Ln SE	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+0%)	2mo	$325,000	$201	76
1695 Haldon Ln SE	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (+10%)	4mo	$334,900	$189	72
1465 W Black Squirrel Ln SE	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (-7%)	3mo	$285,000	$189	71
1332 Cadbury Castle Dr SE	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-14%)	3mo	$293,000	$212	66
1155 Little Martha Way SE Lot 11	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+0%)	2mo	$365,000	$226	65
1442 Evergreen Forest Dr SE	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,789 (+11%)	1mo	$307,000	$172	64
1480 Gate Hill Rd SE	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-13%)	4mo	$290,000	$205	61
1534 Maltwood Ct SE	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-8%)	1mo	$269,000	$180	59
1551 Murre Ct SE	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-10%)	1mo	$278,000	$191	56
1108 Burled Oak Ridge Loop SE Lot 40	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,770 (+10%)	2mo	$314,000	$177	51
1208 Palatka Pl SE	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (+13%)	0mo	$375,900	$205	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-55,384
• Equity at exit: $46,520

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-54,749
• Equity at exit: $26,976

Cash invested: $87,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 569
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,636
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,317/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,429

Max offer price $298,920

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,000
• Closing costs: $9,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2208 Lakefront Dr SE Bolivia, NC	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1595	$1,825	$1.14	14d	61	1.03mi
1004 Arborside Cir Bolivia, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1307	$2,170	$1.66	14d	15	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $312,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,317 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,558 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,242/yr (+$103/mo · 94.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,477
• − Property taxes: −$1,317
• − Insurance: −$1,560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$9,076
• Taxable loss: −$6,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,538
• After-tax cash flow: $649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Oak Island

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #10757

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 8,756
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-85.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $312,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $2,100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+66.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,317 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.