322 Hill Terrace Dr · Nederland, TX 77627

$64,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1968 $83/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK ON THE MARKET!! INVESTOR SPECIAL! PRIME PROPERTY! Located 2 blocks from Central Mall. Large lot to create your vision! Won't last long! AS IS so bring your offers! Appointment required to enter property!

Key facts

• Large lot
• Garage
• Listed 28 days

Tags

• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Vinyl siding; Subdivision: Hillcrest; Directions: Hwy. 365 to Hill Terrace Drive; house is on the right

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 4.6% in Nederland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in TX, #3,906 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Nederland ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #138 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,926 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.66%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,443
• List price: $64,900
• Delta: -57.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $23,787
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $87,794
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77627

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,309 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,071/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $768

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1212 S 36th St Nederland, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	13d	1	0.23mi
531 S 28th St Unit B Nederland, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$750	$1.14	23d	1	0.62mi
531 S 28th St Unit B Nederland, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	13d	1	0.62mi
303 Hardy Ave Unit 3 Nederland, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	43d	1	0.65mi
8849 Pinewood Dr Port Arthur, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,830	$1.85	13d	1	0.67mi
224 S 35th St Nederland, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	23d	1	0.70mi
2561 95th St Port Arthur, TX	1.0	1.0	579	$985	$1.70	13d	1	0.73mi
2555 95th St Port Arthur, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$1,490	$1.79	13d	61	0.77mi
2604 Avenue C Unit C Nederland, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,795	$1.78	43d	1	0.78mi
1924 Avenue H Unit H Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.89mi
1619 Avenue G Unit G Nederland, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	23d	1	1.02mi
7901 Heatherbrook Trl Unit 190 Port Arthur, TX	2.0	1.0	988	$1,425	$1.44	21d	1	1.12mi
7901 Heatherbrook Trl Apt 3 Port Arthur, TX	1.0	1.0	812	$1,325	$1.63	43d	1	1.12mi
7901 Heatherbrook Trl Unit 57 Port Arthur, TX	2.0	1.0	988	$1,425	$1.44	13d	1	1.13mi
209 N 22nd St Unit 1 Nederland, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.13mi
3527 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	2.0	2.5	1088	$1,200	$1.10	43d	1	1.29mi
2901 Helena Ave Nederland, TX	1.0	1.0	720	$850	$1.18	13d	1	1.29mi
3035 Lake Arthur Dr Port Arthur, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$1,917	$2.13	13d	22	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $64,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $64,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $64,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $64,900 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $64,900 Active 192-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,071 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,071 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$2,071
• − Insurance: −$1,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,257
• − Management: −$1,257
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $4,484
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $4,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nederland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832280
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,647
• Composite: 44.95/100
• National rank: #2709
• State rank: #138 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nederland

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #3906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nederland, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 22,357
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,357
• Household income: $78,001
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 572.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.91%
• Current HPI: 176.2132
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Relisted — BBOR
• 2026-05-21 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $64,900 BBOR

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,071 · +20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.