3819 Northwestern Pkwy · Louisville, KY 40212

$66,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Built 1900 2,770 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors! This great home on Northwestern Parkway is ready for a new owner! Lots of space to spread out in this 1 story home with an unfinished basement! 3 bedrooms! 1 bath! Good size room! Home is sold As Is! The seller would be willing to do a package sale with 2703 Hale Ave. Call today for a private showing before it's sold. Enter at your own risk.

Key facts

• 2,770 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 85 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family bungalow; One story; Flat and shingle roof
• Construction: Built in 1900; Wood frame with aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.06 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Basement unfinished with outside entry; Living room on the first floor; First-floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $67k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($463 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,886 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.89%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,632
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 N 38th St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (-2%)	7mo	$190,000	$118	67
4210 Miami Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-5%)	12mo	$208,000	$133	64
107 N 38th St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,649 (+0%)	8mo	$145,000	$88	59
4231 Northwestern Pkwy	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+2%)	24mo	$213,900	$127	59
3913 Bank St	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-6%)	19mo	$129,000	$84	56
224 N 38th St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+2%)	12mo	$75,000	$45	56
366 N 41st St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,400 (-15%)	10mo	$175,200	$125	45
212 N 38th St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,747 (+6%)	12mo	$189,900	$109	43
3601 Rudd Ave	0.26mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,437 (-13%)	20mo	$85,000	$59	43
306 N 35th St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-8%)	18mo	$98,000	$65	32
305 N 45th St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-15%)	23mo	$185,000	$131	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $71,851
• Equity at exit: $60,269

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.36×
• Total profit: $175,241
• Equity at exit: $129,972

Cash invested: $18,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,333 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $808/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $565

Max offer price $66,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,725
• Closing costs: $2,007
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3901 Jewell Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,140	$1.07	20d	1	0.50mi
127 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,570	$1.05	3d	1	0.70mi
106 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,220	$0.92	3d	1	0.75mi
807 E Main St New Albany, IN	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	20d	1	0.81mi
2906 Montgomery St Unit B Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,060	$0.92	24d	1	0.89mi
652 N 29th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1127	$1,350	$1.20	17d	1	0.92mi
608 E Spring St Unit 2 New Albany, IN	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	3d	1	0.93mi
608 E Spring St Unit 2 New Albany, IN	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	24d	1	0.93mi
1112 E Spring St Unit 1 New Albany, IN	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,440	$1.20	24d	1	1.01mi
247 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,305	$1.20	19d	1	1.03mi
905 E Elm St New Albany, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0	937	$1,035	$1.10	24d	1	1.07mi
353 N 27th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	24d	1	1.08mi
901 E Oak St New Albany, IN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	24d	1	1.14mi
2506 Montgomery St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,295	$1.20	3d	4	1.19mi
4129 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,500	$1.23	2d	1	1.26mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	20d	1	1.36mi
212 N 25th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$895	$0.81	24d	1	1.39mi
2529 W Main St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,200	$0.85	24d	1	1.39mi
3922 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1800	$1,195	$0.66	12d	1	1.40mi
2508 W Main St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,500	$1.13	24d	1	1.45mi
627 S 38th St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,349	$1.04	16d	1	1.46mi
808 Vincennes St New Albany, IN	2.0	1.5	1444	$2,000	$1.39	21d	1	1.48mi
628 S 39th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,220	$0.84	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $66,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $66,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $66,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $66,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $66,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $66,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,500 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,500 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $67,500 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,500 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,500 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,500 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,500 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    price $67,500
15. 2026-04-23
    price $69,899
16. 2026-04-02
    status Active
17. 2026-03-14
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-06
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $808 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $808 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,747
• − Property taxes: −$808
• − Insurance: −$334
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,280
• − Management: −$1,280
• − Depreciation: −$1,946
• Taxable income: $6,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,584
• After-tax cash flow: $5,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $67,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $69,899 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-14 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $69,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $808 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.